I'm anticipating complete rejection this cycle. It's my first time applying and I chose 11 programs mostly within the T25 according to the PGR. I tried to look for potential advisors whose areas of specialization were more or less aligned with something I could envision myself doing. I also looked at departmental TT placement records and made my decisions from there. I wish I hadn't made my decision this way and I wish I was inspired enough to study under a specific person and not rely as much on the PGR.
What I hate about this whole process is that, at least at my UG, we were never reading any new philosophy by up-and-coming scholars. The "newest" philosophy we read was Martha Nussbaum and of course now she's a well-established professor emeritus at U Chicago. Anyone younger and it seemed like I wasn't interested in their work at all or they were at a uni with a poor placement record. I suspect my statements of purpose suffered because of this since they only gestured for a few sentences to some professors I have never read and suggested I would enjoy learning from them.
I tried not to delude myself about applications but my (predicted) wholesale rejection is acutely painful since I felt I had a strong application regardless and I can't envision myself doing anything other than academic philosophy.