The short answer is, nobody knows. There are a lot of wild card variables. But if you want a very general approximate idea, this is what I found was helpful.
Deep dive into each of those universities' websites, faq pages, and probably email them to ask how many applicants they get and how many they let in. Then you would need to find how the applications are weighted by the admissions committee.
For example at U Manitoba FAQ says "we accept approximately 60 students (30 for the 1 Year Advanced MSW and 30 for the 2 Year Foundation MSW). We typically receive about 150 applications for the 1 Year Advanced MSW program and about 300 applications for the 2 Year Foundation MSW program."
So using this example, I know my chances in the overall application pool are 10 percent for my situation.
Carletons FAQ states "Each year we accept approximately twenty-five students into each MSW program. We typically receive 160-180 applications for the two year MSW program, and approximately 80 for the one year MSW."
example,So in this example if my math is correct about 14 percent of applicants get accepted, give or take.
They also use a rubric of sorts and state 1/3 of the application weight is your letter of intent, 1/3 your grades/GPA, 1/3 your human service experience hours. In addition to this diversity points are usually also considered.
I'm really reaching here, but anecdotaly speaking this discussion board is really slow and inactive this year as opposed to previous years. I'm hoping that is a good sign for all of us and there less applicants in the pool increasing all of our odds. Fingers crossed.