It all seems very boring, to constantly fixate on probability of getting into a program (yes, not very high, we know—and yet, here we are, applying).
A couple things I want to put out there, not necessarily because I have any need to engage with trolls, but because I know how hard it can be to hold onto hope, and I want the genuine people on this forum to know that I’m pulling for them and I believe in them.
While some applicants will have a better than average chance at getting into multiple programs, receiving one rejection (or even multiple), is not a good reason to believe no program will want you ever (like I’ve heard some suggest, and like my brain worries in it’s darkest moments). Admissions decisions are what those over in data land call statistically independent. Being rejected by one program isn’t automatically going to make you more or less likely to be rejected by all others.
Some writers have the “it” factor that most MFA programs are looking for, that’s undeniable, and those folks are very talented. Every year there are stories of applicants who get into multiple programs. I’m not denying this, but decisions are subjective, and at least partially based on the type of cohort a school hopes to build. Every school has a different existing student population, and so every school is going to be looking for something slightly different. You might not be one of those lucky mass appeal students who gets into a million programs, but that doesn’t mean you aren’t the slightly different that one of the schools you applied to is looking for.
I don’t remember the exact numbers, but one person on the forum mentioned getting in to two schools (out of a decent amount of applications) their first year applying, not being able to attend, then getting into none the next year. I think this is a great example of a probably very talented writer who is certainly able to get into an MFA program, but also subject to issues of timing and the whims of individual admissions boards. I for one hope they get in this year, and I would love to be in a program alongside them
I also have no doubt that there are many very, very talented writers who never get into MFA programs, for all they try. As Dita Von Teese says, “you can be the ripest, juiciest peach in the whole world and there’s still going to be somebody who hates peaches.” You might just be a peach of a writer trying to fit yourself into an apple shaped MFA program.
Like I said, the whole ~you’ll probably never get into a program because it’s so unlikely~ schtick seems very boring and defeatist to me. I hope everyone is holding up ok, I know this period can be a tough wait. In the words of Jess from draft, I’m sending soothing vibes to all of you.
I also want to say that your worth as a person or a writer is not something that an MFA board (who really only see a sliver of you and your work) is able to determine. I used to tie a lot of how I saw myself and my confidence to my grades, and it didn’t turn out to be the healthiest or most accurate thing for me. From my limited experience, y’all are wonderful, and I hope to see your writing out in the world, even if it’s not in the context of an MFA.