I applied to only three doctoral programs this go-round, not because I'm cocky or stupid, but because there are very few programs specializing in my field. It's just my dumb luck that those programs are located at UChicago, Harvard, and Duke. I have a good stats--high GPA, solid GREs, and a number of first-author publications and presentations--but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about being accepted. That being said, I refused to waste money applying to safety programs with mediocre reputations or different research trajectories.
To the OP, apply to those programs that best match your research goals. Also, contact faculty as soon as possible, and make sure they remember your name. I met with faculty members from each of my schools at a national conference this summer, and after discussing my research interests with them, was offered positions in labs at Harvard and Duke. You may have stiff competition at some schools, but you'll benefit from having faculty advocates willing to fight for your admission.