Hello!
This is my first year applying as well! Like you, I am completely in the dark as to how are my chances looking. But I can give some insights, and it is just based on my but don't quote me. haha
(1) I am assuming the course-based route takes in more people than the thesis-based route, purely because you need a supervisor to go into the thesis route, hence the limited enrolment;
(2) I have a two undergraduates: one in Psychology and one in Education. I worked in Education for the last 12 years;
(3) I have no clue! I am constantly checking the portal and my email as well.
Crossing my fingers really. How about you?