I've had similar concerns in a different field and one professor in particular who tried to convince me of applying to a safety school in addition to the 12 top-tier programs I'm applying to. I really respect him, but I think the safety school move is somewhat outdated. Sure, if you are someone whose career goal is just to be in the field regardless of where you end up, then by all means, apply to a safety school. For me, I want a degree that will not only be respected in the United States and give me a leg up on the people vying for top jobs at top programs, but also will give me the freedom to live in Europe and open doors purely through name recognition (of the school, that is). So as far as I am concerned, the only place I am willing to do my PhD is at one of these top programs. If I get 12 rejections this year, then I take what I have and apply again next year. And, if after all of that, it doesn't happen, then I'll re-evaluate on. It shouldn't be taken as a sign of cockiness or a lack of passion for my work, it's just the reality of the market situation today and I think if you've decided on a strategy that you're happy with, screw what anyone else says.