Sbyoda, I agree with eskidd about your competitive credentials and the not worrying about publishing, but also about the unfortunate uncertainty of the doctoral admission process. With so many strong applicants and so few spots, it's just really difficult to gauge the likelihood of admission, especially at a top-tier school (which is what a lot of us are going through right now). But several professors have told me the significance of the SoP and submitting a polished writing sample, which is probably advice countless others in this forum can attest to have heard as well. In terms of where you have done masters work (and where letters of recommendation come from), I've heard applicants from more well-known programs have a slight advantage, but I was at Emory's Finalists Weekend a few weekends ago and there were applicants (I think about 40 in all) from a myriad of schools: Duke, Union Sem, BC, BU, Harvard, Yale, Princeton Sem, Emory, Columbia Sem, ND, Chicago, Vanderbilt, TCU, WUSTL, Rice, Villanova, and I didn't come close to meeting all of the folks there.