I asked my coordinator. He said the rule of thumb is that anything 10 points away from the total score is generally on the slate to be funded (in normal times, of course). For example, if your average score is 95 out of 110 (as many of the mentioned scores seem to be), you are 5 points off from the minimum funding mark, and unlikely to be funded. Thus, if your average lands you somewhere in the 100 range, you have a good shot. However, this is just a rule of thumb, so anything can happen. Also, the Mellon people are focusing on the humanities, so it's not exactly a fair shake for all disciplines. They are clearly weeding through applications, not going by total scores. It's hard to know, but I think at this point no one should hold out hope. Only the best of the best have a shot.