When is waiting a bad sign?

[Becker326]

Hello everyone,

I applied to 15 programs, and I have only heard back from nine - all rejections. Everyone is a bit surprised because my GREs are great and I am being published in an AUP text. However, my hopes are getting a bit dashed and my optimism is waning. The later rejections have been very encouraging and seem personally written, so does this mean I may get into one of the remaining six programs? Or should I steel myself for six more rejections? 

I appreciate any and all advice, I know its a stressful time for everyone. 

Thank you,

Jessica

Edited March 9, 2018 by Becker326
Fixed errors

[exvat]

Hey Jessica,

I'm not a great authority on this, but here's what I've pieced together for myself. Each school is on their own timeline, and within that each school/department has their own method of sending out notifications (rolling, bursts, all at once, etc.), so it's all pretty school-specific. For instance, I know that Vanderbilt only accepts like 10 MFA students per year, and tends to notify them in a very short span, all in mid- to late-February (based on past years). So once March rolls around and acceptances have already been reported here, I know to reasonably expect a rejection. Compare that to NYU, who seems to accept in bursts, starting in late February, with acceptances from the waitlist coming in April. If I haven't heard anything about acceptance or waitlist and it's mid-March, I'm going to expect a rejection to come soon. If I were waitlisted, make that agony until Tax Day.

All that said, if I haven't heard anything from my four schools (NYU, Columbia University, Vanderbilt, and Iowa) by the third week of March, when it seems like Columbia (the last to respond, historically) tends to be done accepting, then I'll go ahead and start calling this year a bust and expect all four to be rejections. Right now, it's looking like it's headed that direction.

Hope that helps with the perspective a little. Like I said, I'm not an authority, but this is how I've been framing all this in my mind.

For the record, I also consider myself a damn good applicant in my field, and I have 3 reasonably expected rejections coming my way, and then a wait for Columbia. Been published in a top magazine, have recommendation letters from National Book Award and National Book Critics Circle Award winners, an unrelated M.S. from a top research university in that field, good grades, excellent GRE score where it counts, and experience "in the real world" of my area of application (just nothing academic). How I'm facing an 0-for-4 scenario has me scratching my head a little bit. If I'm not a candidate for admission... then who is? I ask that seriously, so that I might better understand what the programs are looking for, and if I would, in fact, be a good fit. If not, then I don't want to waste my time or the admissions boards' by applying next year. But I would like some feedback, one way or the other!

exvat

[Becker326]

Wow. I agree with your question! What in the world makes an ideal candidate if not one like yourself?! 

Thank you for your feedback and sharing your story. I hope Columbia accepts you, even if they take drag out the process.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Becker326
Typo

[Tyedyedturtle91]

I really agree with Exvat. These programs all have minds of their own, their own timelines, their own ways of doing things. And, I think that is pretty universal to any field of study. I think you can use the data here to form loose probabilities after following the historical trends (when/how acceptances go out, do they accept in waves, etc.), but you just really don't know from year to year. Things change: funding, faculty, resources, program demographics (for MFAs, how many prose vs. fiction, etc.), taste/subjectivity, research interests. It's a complicated calculus, which is difficult to really objectively understand. But that should be comforting. We tend to internalize all of this, as something we could have changed or controlled, but so very much of it is not even in our hands and kinda comes down to luck.

I think the farther you wait into March, the less likely an acceptance is coming, generally. However, some programs accept way late into March. Some don't discuss (if they ever do) the waitlist until then. And, as I said, things change, and the Grad Cafe is not all-knowing. As an example, one of my schools had an acceptance posted in early February. As a week and then another passed, I was like, "Okay, that's it. Rejected there." I marked it down as such on my spreadsheet (yes, I have a spreadsheet, lol). Then at the very end of February, I got an email that I was in. I was totally shocked. What I knew of past years said it was over by then. The acceptance earlier in the month confirmed it for me. But that was totally wrong.

So, my advice is be reasonably realistic, but still hopeful (that's what I'm doing). The data might show six acceptances probably aren't on their way to you. It is getting late in the game. But one or two or three very well might be. And, hell, I might be totally wrong, which is my whole larger point. We just don't know. Six definitely could. Stranger things have happened! And I sincerely hope six ARE on their way to you. But even one would be awesome, right? One still means you got in. You did it. And even if one doesn't, you still took this risk; you put yourself out there; you went through the gauntlet that is this process; and you are smarter, stronger, and more skilled because of it. Keep your head up, no matter what happens.

I'm still waiting for seven programs. I'm guessing four rejections, probably more. Hoping for one more acceptance, maybe a couple waitlists. But who the hell knows? Hang in there!