[Mock/Prospective] PhD in Statistics Fall 2021 Profile Evaluation

[MathsterJedi]

Hi folks,

I am just entering a terminal Masters of Statistics Program at the University of Utah (Utah doesn't offer a Stat PhD) and am hoping to apply to PhD programs after finishing. Could people kindly recommend fitting programs given my profile/history below? I have been struggling to find good information on the topic.

Undergraduate Institution: University of Utah (#34 in Mathematics and #12 in Algebra/Number Theory/Algebraic Geometry per USNews)

Majors: Mathematics (Statistics Emphasis) and Economics (Econometrics Emphasis) Double Major

Cumulative GPA: 3.34/4.00

Math major GPA: 3.70 | Econ major GPA: 3.85

Graduate Institution: University of Utah

Graduate Program: Master of Statistics - Department of Mathematics

Type of Student: Male South Pacific Islander (Samoan)

Relevant Courses:

* Math/Statistics/Econometrics

• MATH 1050 College Algebra  (A)
• MATH 1070 Intro to Stat Inference (A)
• MATH 1210 Analytical Geometry & Calc 1  (A-)
• MATH 1220 Analytical Geometry & Calc 2  (A)
• MATH 2200 Discrete Mathematics (A)
• MATH 2210 Calculus 3 (A)
• MATH 3070 Applied Statistics 1 (A-)
• MATH 3080 Applied Statistics 2 (A-)
• MATH 2270 Linear Algebra (A-)
• MATH 3210 Foundations of Analysis 1 (A) 
• MATH 3220 Foundations of Analysis 2 (A)
• MATH 5010 Intro to Probability (B-)
• MATH 5075 Time Series Analysis (A)
• MATH 5080 Statistical Inference 1 (A-)
• MATH 5090 Statistical Inference 2 (A)
• MATH 5750 Inverse Problems (A)
• ECON 3640 Prob&Stat Inference (A)
• ECON 4650 Principles of Econometrics  (A)
• ECON 4660 Applied Statistical Tools (A)
• ECON 4670 Community Research (A) - Senior Econometrics Capstone course

*Additional Math/Stat Courses I will have completed by time of application

• MATH 4400 Number Theory
• MATH 5040 Stochastic Proc & Simulations I
• MATH 5050 Stochastic Proc & Simulations II
• MATH 6010  Linear Models
• MATH 6020  Multi-Linear Models
• MATH 6040 Probability Theory
• MATH 6070 Mathematical Statistics
• MATH 6210 Real Analysis

Along with a myriad of graduate level computer science courses focusing around algorithms, machine learning, and perhaps scientific computation.

* Computer Science:

• CS 1410 Intro to Object Orientated Programming (A)
• CS 2420 Intro to Algorithms and Data Structures (A)

* Other Quantitative Intensive Courses

• Principles of Microeconomics (A)
• Intermediate Microeconomics (A-)
• Principles of Macroeconomics (A-)
• Intermediate Macroeconomics (A-)
• Physics 1 (B) (Algebra Based)

GRE General Test: I have not yet taken

Research Experience: I did two semesters of Undergraduate Research in the data science domain. I modeled mouse cursor movement data to better predict 1-5 *usefulness* ratings of web pages in an intelligent web browser my faculty mentor had created. I presented my model and findings and some data science conferences, but we never published anything.

I've also taken two project based economics courses with "research" in the title, but was certainly not proper academic research. It was more like policy consulting to government agencies.

Work Experience: I worked at a top investment bank, Goldman Sachs, for almost two years after finishing my first undergraduate degree in Economics. My position was first as a Business Intelligence Specialist in the Margin space in Securities, and I later moved to a liquidity risk engineer position (akin to a data engineer) in the Risk division. 

Other Relevant Items: My GPA is generally poor because I did very poor in several gen-eds at the very beginning of my college career. Regarding my (B-) in MATH 5010 Probability, I woke up the morning of the final with stomach flu. I could hardly sit for the exam and handed it in with the majority of questions left blank. This dropped me from a 98% (A) in the class to a (B-). I plan to retake the graduate level version this summer.

Letters of Recommendation:

• 1 from Professor in Math Department (Asymptotic Theory Specialist)
• Other two 

Schools:

• UChicago
• Northwestern
• CMU
• UCLA

These are really the only programs I am familiar with. Do I have a chance at top US programs? What should be target range of schools given the above?

Thanks!!!!

[Stat Assistant Professor]

I don't think you have any chance at UChicago or CMU. UCLA may also be tough. I think the top 30 Stat PhD programs (according to USNWR) may be out of your reach based on your cumulative GPA and the fact that competition among international students is very fierce.

If I were you, I would start at the tier of Ohio State and University of Florida and work your way down. I think that conditional on strong performance in the first year of your Masters programs, programs ranked in the 60-80 range of USNWR may be your most realistic bet -- provided that the discrepancy between your overall GPA and your major GPA's is adequately explained in your application. It would probably be best to ask a letter of recommendation writer to point out the marked improvement and the fact that your math GPA is a lot higher, with mostly A/A's. They should also draw specific attention to the A/A-'s in Real Analysis and Statistical Inference in their letters, and you can also point these out in your statement of purpose.

[statfan]

Your overall gpa is low but you did well in most math courses, and your ability to do math is what admissions committee mainly cares about. If your bombed electives courses that are not relevant, I don't think it's a big deal. If I were you, I would take more advanced proof-based courses such as grad level real analysis and possibly take the math subject GRE to strengthen my profile. If you do well in them, you should have a decent shot at schools between Penn State and Florida and I think it is not impossible to get into a couple of top 20 programs. However, competition is very stiff in recent years and you should add a few safeties outside of top 50.

Edited December 11, 2019 by statfan

[Stat Assistant Professor]

12 hours ago, statfan said:

Your overall gpa is low but you did well in most math courses, and your ability to do math is what admissions committee mainly cares about. If your bombed electives courses that are not relevant, I don't think it's a big deal. If I were you, I would take more advanced proof-based courses such as grad level real analysis and possibly take the math subject GRE to strengthen my profile. If you do well in them, you should have a decent shot at schools between Penn State and Florida and I think it is not impossible to get into a couple of top 20 programs. However, competition is very stiff in recent years and you should add a few safeties outside of top 50.

Agreed with you that doing those things would help improve the OP's profile and chances. But I think top 20 is a bit optimistic since he is an international student, and there is much less room for error there given all of the competition. While I would agree with your assessment if he were a domestic student, the fact is that most international students in the top 20 (really, 30) schools will be those who graduated with high honors from the top universities in their respective home countries or in the U.S. University of Utah is a fine school, but adcoms are likely to view a top student from Peking, Tsinghua, ISI, etc. more favorably. 

That said, I do think that strong performance in a Masters program might make a school like University of Florida (and similarly ranked programs like UConn, FSU, etc.) attainable for OP. There are some international students I know who graduated from UF who attended undergrad institutions that were fine but not extremely prestigious (such as Bard College and University of New Hampshire).  I think schools ranked 40-70 would be most appropriate for the OP's profile, but he can certainly try a few schools ranked above and below that for good measure.

[icantdoalgebra]

As an aside, I don't think he counts as international since Samao is an American territory (similar to Puerto Rico). He would actually probably be considered an URM American citizen? Although OP should fill out these details, not me.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

10 minutes ago, icantdoalgebra said:

As an aside, I don't think he counts as international since Samao is an American territory (similar to Puerto Rico). He would actually probably be considered an URM American citizen? Although OP should fill out these details, not me.

There is the country Samoa and the territory American Samoa. If he is from the former, then he's an international applicant. But if he is from American Samoa, then he is American and his chances do change a bit.

 

Even if he were domestic, I would still say the top 20 schools are reaches, though. But he might be able to get into some schools like Iowa State and some others between Penn State and Rutgers.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Stat PhD Now Postdoc

[MathsterJedi]

On 12/10/2019 at 5:42 PM, Stat PhD Now Postdoc said:

I don't think you have any chance at UChicago or CMU. UCLA may also be tough. I think the top 30 Stat PhD programs (according to USNWR) may be out of your reach based on your cumulative GPA and the fact that competition among international students is very fierce.

If I were you, I would start at the tier of Ohio State and University of Florida and work your way down. I think that conditional on strong performance in the first year of your Masters programs, programs ranked in the 60-80 range of USNWR may be your most realistic bet -- provided that the discrepancy between your overall GPA and your major GPA's is adequately explained in your application. It would probably be best to ask a letter of recommendation writer to point out the marked improvement and the fact that your math GPA is a lot higher, with mostly A/A's. They should also draw specific attention to the A/A-'s in Real Analysis and Statistical Inference in their letters, and you can also point these out in your statement of purpose.

Thanks for the advice! To clarify, I am not an international student. Born and raised in the US! Thanks again!

[MathsterJedi]

On 12/10/2019 at 6:09 PM, statfan said:

Your overall gpa is low but you did well in most math courses, and your ability to do math is what admissions committee mainly cares about. If your bombed electives courses that are not relevant, I don't think it's a big deal. If I were you, I would take more advanced proof-based courses such as grad level real analysis and possibly take the math subject GRE to strengthen my profile. If you do well in them, you should have a decent shot at schools between Penn State and Florida and I think it is not impossible to get into a couple of top 20 programs. However, competition is very stiff in recent years and you should add a few safeties outside of top 50.

Thanks!! To clarify, I am not an international student. I am ethnically Samoan but born and raised in the US. Not sure if this alters your opinion. Thanks again!

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by MathsterJedi

[MathsterJedi]

On 12/11/2019 at 6:28 AM, Stat PhD Now Postdoc said:

Agreed with you that doing those things would help improve the OP's profile and chances. But I think top 20 is a bit optimistic since he is an international student, and there is much less room for error there given all of the competition. While I would agree with your assessment if he were a domestic student, the fact is that most international students in the top 20 (really, 30) schools will be those who graduated with high honors from the top universities in their respective home countries or in the U.S. University of Utah is a fine school, but adcoms are likely to view a top student from Peking, Tsinghua, ISI, etc. more favorably. 

That said, I do think that strong performance in a Masters program might make a school like University of Florida (and similarly ranked programs like UConn, FSU, etc.) attainable for OP. There are some international students I know who graduated from UF who attended undergrad institutions that were fine but not extremely prestigious (such as Bard College and University of New Hampshire).  I think schools ranked 40-70 would be most appropriate for the OP's profile, but he can certainly try a few schools ranked above and below that for good measure.

Thank you for the reply! To clarify, I am not an international student. I am only ethnically Samoan - otherwise born and raised in the US. Does this affect your suggestions? Thanks

[MathsterJedi]

20 hours ago, icantdoalgebra said:

As an aside, I don't think he counts as international since Samao is an American territory (similar to Puerto Rico). He would actually probably be considered an URM American citizen? Although OP should fill out these details, not me.

To clarify, I am only ethnically Samoan. I was born and raised in the USA. Apologies for not making it clear.

[MathsterJedi]

20 hours ago, Stat PhD Now Postdoc said:

There is the country Samoa and the territory American Samoa. If he is from the former, then he's an international applicant. But if he is from American Samoa, then he is American and his chances do change a bit.

 

Even if he were domestic, I would still say the top 20 schools are reaches, though. But he might be able to get into some schools like Iowa State and some others between Penn State and Rutgers.

Thanks for the reply! I am only ethnically Samoan. I was born and raised in the United States. I will look at the three schools you mentioned. Thanks again!

[Stat Assistant Professor]

3 minutes ago, MathsterJedi said:

Thank you for the reply! To clarify, I am not an international student. I am only ethnically Samoan - otherwise born and raised in the US. Does this affect your suggestions? Thanks

Of the top 20 programs in the USNWR rankings for Statistics (including the ties), I would say you might have a chance at Iowa State and Texas A&M, but the others like Cornell and UNC-Chapel Hill (and any higher than that) will be quite challenging for you to get into, with your overall GPA.

I would suggest focusing on getting all A's in your Masters program and making sure that one (or several) of your LOR writers emphasize the upward trend in your grades and the A's in Real Analysis and other upper division math classes. But make sure that it is framed in a positive way -- like "My overall GPA improved from a [freshman year GPA] to [GPA at the end of undergrad], and I have received almost all A/A-'s in upper division classes, including [real analysis, statistical inference, etc.]"

I would focus on mainly schools in the 21-40 range, with a a handful of schools ranked lower than that.

[MathsterJedi]

I may be able to explain the low GPA in my personal statement. I come from the unfortunate "stereotypical" broken house hold (father is convicted felon, brother is a drug addict, etc etc). I've also seen that per the American Statistical Association data, only 2 PhDs have been awarded to "Native Hawaiians and South Pacific Islanders" and only 7 Masters Degrees over the past 10 years. Moreover, all of my poor grades were in subjective liberal arts courses - none were in any type of quantitative class. Not sure to what extent if any this additional information helps my case. Thanks!

[MathsterJedi]

1 minute ago, Stat PhD Now Postdoc said:

Of the top 20 programs in the USNWR rankings for Statistics (including the ties), I would say you might have a chance at Iowa State and Texas A&M, but the others like Cornell and UNC-Chapel Hill (and any higher than that) will be quite challenging for you to get into, with your overall GPA.

I would suggest focusing on getting all A's in your Masters program and making sure that one (or several) of your LOR writers emphasize the upward trend in your grades and the A's in Real Analysis and other upper division math classes. But make sure that it is framed in a positive way -- like "My overall GPA improved from a [freshman year GPA] to [GPA at the end of undergrad], and I have received almost all A/A-'s in upper division classes, including [real analysis, statistical inference, etc.]"

I would focus on mainly schools in the 21-40 range, with a a handful of schools ranked lower than that.

Thanks so much for the thoughtful reply. Best of luck in your studies.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

27 minutes ago, MathsterJedi said:

I may be able to explain the low GPA in my personal statement. I come from the unfortunate "stereotypical" broken house hold (father is convicted felon, brother is a drug addict, etc etc). I've also seen that per the American Statistical Association data, only 2 PhDs have been awarded to "Native Hawaiians and South Pacific Islanders" and only 7 Masters Degrees over the past 10 years. Moreover, all of my poor grades were in subjective liberal arts courses - none were in any type of quantitative class. Not sure to what extent if any this additional information helps my case. Thanks!

Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian could be considered URM, but there are also other URMs who apply to the top (Bio)statistics programs that have better pedigrees and/or stronger academic records and high GRE scores. So I don't think that fact will automatically make you a "shoe-in" at the top PhD programs. For reference, these are the types of URM's that are accepted into top PhD programs in Statistics:

• https://aswilson07.github.io/website/
• https://vivo.brown.edu/display/lcrawfo1
• https://provost.ncsu.edu/news/2017/02/statistical-success/
• https://anson.ucdavis.edu/~melopes/

You will notice that they all attended top schools and/or graduated summa cum laude, etc.  I would focus mainly on PhD applications to schools in the 20-40.range

Edited December 12, 2019 by Stat PhD Now Postdoc

[statfan]

Some schools do have an initial gpa cutoff and your gpa is around the borderline. If you can make that cutoff, I guess you will not be held back by your overall gpa too much. If you have strong letters and good grades in advanced proof-based courses, you may have a shot at some of the top 20 schools.

Edited December 12, 2019 by statfan

[StatsG0d]

I wouldn't waste time applying to Northwestern. The program is more difficult to get into than most other programs with the same prestige. I'll echo @Stat PhD Now Postdoc and say to target some of the larger departments. There seems to be an agreement among many people that domestic students tend to do better at public rather than private schools, likely for funding reasons. You might also want to consider biostatistics programs. Most departments' funding depends on NIH or other US governmental agencies, and this money can only be used to fund US students. 

I agree with both @statfan and @Stat PhD Now Postdoc... your cumulative GPA is a concern but on the other hand you have shown that you can handle yourself in advanced math classes. I'm at a top-10 institution, and your math background far exceeds what I had when I was applying. On the other hand, my cumulative, major, and math GPAs were higher than yours. It's difficult to know which of these things sends the signal adcoms are looking for as I strongly feel they differ from program to program.

You could try to email some graduate program heads and tell them about your profile and your concerns and see what their response is. Worst case scenario is you don't get a response or get the generic "we take a holistic approach...", and best case scenario is they tell you what you can do to help. In my experience, many of them respond and are quite helpful with their responses.

There are quite a few people from Utah in my current program. Perhaps you can reach out to people you know to see if they can get someone in their department to talk to you.

[MathsterJedi]

On 12/13/2019 at 6:58 AM, StatsG0d said:

I wouldn't waste time applying to Northwestern. The program is more difficult to get into than most other programs with the same prestige. I'll echo @Stat PhD Now Postdoc and say to target some of the larger departments. There seems to be an agreement among many people that domestic students tend to do better at public rather than private schools, likely for funding reasons. You might also want to consider biostatistics programs. Most departments' funding depends on NIH or other US governmental agencies, and this money can only be used to fund US students. 

I agree with both @statfan and @Stat PhD Now Postdoc... your cumulative GPA is a concern but on the other hand you have shown that you can handle yourself in advanced math classes. I'm at a top-10 institution, and your math background far exceeds what I had when I was applying. On the other hand, my cumulative, major, and math GPAs were higher than yours. It's difficult to know which of these things sends the signal adcoms are looking for as I strongly feel they differ from program to program.

You could try to email some graduate program heads and tell them about your profile and your concerns and see what their response is. Worst case scenario is you don't get a response or get the generic "we take a holistic approach...", and best case scenario is they tell you what you can do to help. In my experience, many of them respond and are quite helpful with their responses.

There are quite a few people from Utah in my current program. Perhaps you can reach out to people you know to see if they can get someone in their department to talk to you.

Thanks so much for the thoughtful reply! Will take your advice into consideration.

[MathsterJedi]

On 12/12/2019 at 11:49 AM, Stat PhD Now Postdoc said:

Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian could be considered URM, but there are also other URMs who apply to the top (Bio)statistics programs that have better pedigrees and/or stronger academic records and high GRE scores. So I don't think that fact will automatically make you a "shoe-in" at the top PhD programs. For reference, these are the types of URM's that are accepted into top PhD programs in Statistics:

• https://aswilson07.github.io/website/
• https://vivo.brown.edu/display/lcrawfo1
• https://provost.ncsu.edu/news/2017/02/statistical-success/
• https://anson.ucdavis.edu/~melopes/

You will notice that they all attended top schools and/or graduated summa cum laude, etc.  I would focus mainly on PhD applications to schools in the 20-40.range

Thanks for the thoughtful reply! Indeed it looks like programs in the 20-40 range should be my aim. I certainly do not think being an URM would simply guarantee me access, but a handful of mentors have suggested it may have a larger impact than I might suspect.

For instance, per https://ww2.amstat.org/misc/RaceEthinicity2011-2017.pdf, the number of native Hawaiians and pacific islanders who earned a Statistics PhD is approximately 1/20th that of the Black American African population (2 vs 39). I got the impression my mentors were suggesting there was a tiered affect on different groups of URM's (ie, being a Native American URM was maybe more impactful than being a Black African American URM).

Regardless, thanks for your advice! Not sure I would want to be in a program I am technically not qualified for anyway!!

Thanks again.