Does a path to a top PhD program exist for me?

[movingtostats]

Hi guys, hope everyone is safe, healthy and practicing social distancing . I made a post a few days ago asking for a profile evaluation and got some very helpful advice. What I was wondering is, does a path to one of the top doctoral programs for statistics in the US exist for me, if yes then what does it look like. I will be applying for a masters coming fall and then for a PhD. I will reupload my profile so that you dont have to go to my previous post. I basically want to know what steps I should take from now on so that I can get into the best possible school, given the below parameters. Here is the profile that I posted asking for an MS stats profile evaluation, If you want to evaluate my profile for the MS you are more than welcome.

Undegrad Institution : University of Delhi (tier 2 college)

Major : Economics

GPA : 7.12/10 (3.6 US equivalent)

Releveant Courses : 

Math/Statistics : Math Econ I (7) ,Math Econ II (8) , Statistics (7), Introductory Econometrics (8), Applied Econometrics (10) 

All grades are out of 10, the two math courses covered some linear algebra and the rest was multivariable calculus but did not have vector calculus stuff like green's theorem. The statistics course was calculus based and had random variables, hypo testing, clt and similar stuff. Econometrics was mostly regression stuff.

Graduate Institution : Indian Statistical Institute

Major : Quantitative Economics ( MS in QE)

Grade : 86/100 (This is only one semester, I rank 4 in a batch of 23.)

Relevant Courses : Math Methods (95), Statistics (95), Game Theory (91), Probability Theory (66)

All grades are out of 100.Math course had good amount of linear algebra, decent amount of real analysis and a lot of optimization topics like KKT. Statistics was taught from Casella & Berger, was very mathematical had things like cramer-rao bound, cramer woldt device, likelihood ratio test, NP lemma etc, Prob Theory was from the stat department and I couldn't do well in it because Real Analysis was a prerequisite which I had not studied, the course had convergence concepts(almost surely,distribution etc) and markov chains.

Relevant courses from this semester are Econometrics I, Theory Of Mechanism Design( not sure how relevant but it is a mathematical course) and Game Theory -II 

When the time to apply comes I will have had a course in Real Analysis(Analysis-I from the stat dept) and I am pretty sure I'll get an 80+ in it and I will also have had and additional course in Econometrics, one in Sample Survey and and one in Time Series, in my last semester I will also take either Measure Theory or Analysis - II depending on my interest, I cannot take these now or in the next semester as the Institute doesn't allow too many courses from other dept. in one semester.

General GRE : Quant(165), Verbal(164)

GRE Mathematics Subject Test : Not given yet.

Research Experience: None so far.

The things that I worry about are that my UG institute wasn't really the best in the country, it wasn't a bad school but just wasn't amongst the top colleges, my GPA in UG is also not fabulous however I think it is still better in the relevant courses.  Will bad grade in prob theory be a significant factor?

I am also planning to give the GRE Math by studying for it over the summer, I think I should be able to manage 70+  percentile on this, will this add significant value for top schools?

LOR : One will be from my game theory and Mechanism Design professor who is a PhD in industrial engineering, rest all will be from economists though should be good.

Edited April 14, 2020 by movingtostats

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Unfortunately, I think top PhD programs in Statistics are likely out of your reach, and even a lot of mid-tier programs might be out of reach too. The competition for international applicants is extremely fierce. Although ISI is a prestigious university, I would think that many Statistics PhD programs will favor ISI students with *Statistics* Masters degrees over those in Quantitative Economics. If you want to try aim for Statistics PhD programs, I would recommend applying mainly to those ranked in the 50-80 range of USNWR.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Stat Postdoc Soon Faculty

[movingtostats]

@Stat Postdoc Soon Faculty I see, are you saying this after taking into account the fact that I will first get a masters in statistics from us or canada after my current masters in econ and then apply for PhD or did you think that I’m directly applying for a PhD in stats after my masters in econ. Just want to make sure that we’re on the same page. So at the time of applying for a PhD I also will have a masters in statistics( hopefully from a good school), so still you think that I can only do as good as the 50th ranked program?

Edited April 14, 2020 by movingtostats

[Stat Assistant Professor]

I think that even if you obtain a Masters degree in Statistics before applying to PhD programs in Stats, your profile is not competitive enough for top schools in Stat. If you perform very well in your MS program, you could aim for a few "reach" schools like University of Minnesota, Purdue, or Texas A&M, but I wouldn't aim much higher than those personally.

[movingtostats]

@Stat Postdoc Soon Faculty I see, thanks for letting me know, I will now have reasonable expectations regarding where I can get in. What schools do you think I can get into for a masters in the us and canada?

[movingtostats]

I would love to get the opinion of and advice from @bayessays . If you have time please let me know what you think.

Edited April 14, 2020 by movingtostats

[bayessays]

I agree with above advice. I don't see top 60 departments being a possibility.  The low grade in your probability cross is going to draw suspicion, and your GRE score is borderline.  Most international students either have math degrees from top schools and many have MS from top US schools, and many have stats research experience.

[movingtostats]

@bayessays Thanks a lot for the helpful advice. Can you also tell me which schools I should apply to for the masters in the US.

[jelquiades]

I understand as an international student you are shooting for the top schools, and perhaps there is not as much literature on schools that are less prestigious than the top 10.

Truth is the schools ranked 50 and below are also excellent programs. I hate rankings. In fact I turned down a top 20 program for one ranked in the 60s this time around. Just looking at the numbers may make you think I'm crazy, but in fact the school I chose is a much better fit for me. Unfortunately, the ranking does tend to mean something about the quality of the program, so it's useful for discussion on this forum. But everyone knows that it's an attempt to compress everything about a PhD program into one dimension.

As for masters programs, since you're shooting for a PhD eventually, look for programs that contain a research component, e.g. one with a thesis option. I know UChicago, Duke, Colorado State, UNC Chapel Hill, UC Santa Barbara have masters programs with a thesis. I know this because when I was researching schools, I created a giant spreadsheet with info like this. I suggest you click around on that US News list and do the same. Along the way you'll learn other things about the schools that can help you decide where to go.

[bayessays]

Yes, find a school where you can take theoretical classes, get As, and get to know professors and write a thesis. Agreed with above about ratings.  I also turned down a 30s program for an unranked program. There are lots of hidden gems outside the top schools.

[movingtostats]

@jelquiades Do you think I have a shot at getting an MS from the schools that you’ve mentioned, I’m not sure how I would fare and what my chances are at schools like Uchicago, Duke and UNC. Previously I thought that masters admissions aren’t that competitive and that given my profile I’d be able to get into a very good school for a masters but now I’m not so sure.

[jelquiades]

I honestly don't know enough about masters admissions to give you any answer, and I generally think "chancing" people has a lot of information bias (you think you're learning something, but it's noise). But I do suggest you apply to schools of a wide range of prestige (that offer a thesis option, as mentioned above). Perhaps you should try to look for these programs first.

[StatMasterCat]

I'm an international applicant who also applied for Master's programs this year. What I can say is, if you are self-funded and not aiming top 20, it might not be too competitive. I also applied for some programs with a thesis option but thing is, even if the program's website says they have a thesis option, the chance might be pretty limited. For example, UPitts has a thesis option so I applied but then they emailed me that they rarely accept thesis option students so it was just a waste of admission fee. My recommendation is, go to their websites and see if they a thesis option and contact the coordinator to make sure they actually offer the option.