Profile Eval: Fall 2021 Phd Statistics

[Stats2021]

Undergrad: Top 40 Large State University

Major: Economics

GPA: 3.56

Student Type: DWM

Undergrad Courses:  Calculus I II III (A, B+, A),  Linear Algebra (A-), Probability (B-), Regression Analysis (C-), C Programming (A)

 

MS Stat: Top 20 program - Graduating in December or Spring 2021

GPA: 3.5

Grad Courses: Probability (B), Regression (B), Distribution Theory (B), DOE (A), Multivariate Analysis (A), Nonparametric Regression (A). More courses, but those are the main players. Due to the COVID situation, I will actually be able to take real analysis as well. I also have a W - but this was more a personal matter than academic. I had a B in the course, but mom was dying. Life happens. In terms of the trend of B's and A's, started the program with all B's but have consistently made A's since then.

 

GRE General: Will take at the end of summer. Preparing for several months - I don't want to take it lightly

Math GRE: Likely won't take

Research: - Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah. I have been working as a data analyst/scientist for the past 5 years, though

Letters of Recommendation: Multivariate and nonparametric professors (one well-regarded/known) that will be decent, one from CEO or an undergrad prof

Programs Applying to: Statistics PhD

Interests: Stochastic Processes

Considering to Apply to:  UNC, NC State, UF, UVA

 

Notes: I don't think I'm a killer candidate - calling something like CMU a reach would be far too kind. But I was wondering if I had a shot somewhere in the 40-60 range, with UNC and NC State acting as reach schools. I figure my chances are middling, depending on my GRE scores and my real analysis grade, but I'd like to check with you to see what you think. I appreciate any comments/recommendations!

Edited April 17, 2020 by Stats2021

[bayessays]

I don't really think it's worth it to apply to top 30 schools. I think UF/OSU level schools are big enough reaches, and mostly you should probably apply to 40-70 ranked places. Maybe something like a South Carolina would be a good target? 

For comparison, I had a similar undergraduate record and A's in my top MS program, plus high GRE and lots of research, but I still had trouble cracking schools like NCSU and even OSU.

[Stats2021]

7 hours ago, bayessays said:

I don't really think it's worth it to apply to top 30 schools. I think UF/OSU level schools are big enough reaches, and mostly you should probably apply to 40-70 ranked places. Maybe something like a South Carolina would be a good target? 

For comparison, I had a similar undergraduate record and A's in my top MS program, plus high GRE and lots of research, but I still had trouble cracking schools like NCSU and even OSU.

Thank you, I really appreciate your perspective! I agree, UNC and NC State might be too big of a stretch, but that’s perfectly ok.

 

If you don’t mind me asking, where did you end up attending?

[bayessays]

I'm attending an unranked program, but was admitted to some Top 40s and waitlisted at some top 10s.  Take a look at shuggie's results here for a comparison:  they had some similar low math grades, but had.a record of As in classes like real analysis and still couldn't get into UF/OSU.  Since you don't have those upper-level math classes, your results are not going to be as strong.  The bigger issue is that Bs in graduate courses are generally not considered to be good grades so those Bs in probability/distribution theory are likely to make programs doubt whether you'll be able to pass their quals and higher level stat theory courses.

https://forum.thegradcafe.com/topic/123420-2020-applicant-profiles-and-admission-results-for-statisticsbiostatistics/

[Stats2021]

1 hour ago, bayessays said:

I'm attending an unranked program, but was admitted to some Top 40s and waitlisted at some top 10s.  Take a look at shuggie's results here for a comparison:  they had some similar low math grades, but had.a record of As in classes like real analysis and still couldn't get into UF/OSU.  Since you don't have those upper-level math classes, your results are not going to be as strong.  The bigger issue is that Bs in graduate courses are generally not considered to be good grades so those Bs in probability/distribution theory are likely to make programs doubt whether you'll be able to pass their quals and higher level stat theory courses.

https://forum.thegradcafe.com/topic/123420-2020-applicant-profiles-and-admission-results-for-statisticsbiostatistics/

That link was helpful! It's good that you found a good fit for you, too - that's my #1 priority as well. I think I'm going to narrow things down in a range closer to 50-90, with UF as a reach. I'm hoping the B's to start the program and the A's to end it might help me out, but I won't keep my fingers crossed. Admission decisions can be very unpredictable. The time between my Bachelor's and Master's definitely took me away from the student mindset, but I've tried to make up for it down the road. Thank you again for all of the advice! I think you've given me a great frame of reference here

[BL250604]

I think also a school like South Carolina would be worth a look. if you have questions about it, feel free to reach out. I think it fits into your range, and fits your southern disposition. Virginia tech also may be worthwhile. Perhaps George Mason as well. Or, some of the UNC- schools are worth a shot, such as UNC-G, UNC-W, etc.

[Stats2021]

@bayessays if I have the opportunity to retake a course I dropped this fall, do you think I should? Or should I let bygones be bygones? I was wondering how admissions might view it

[bayessays]

What class? If it's some theoretical class or analysis, dropping it could look l like you couldn't handle it. But in most cases, drops don't really matter as long as they're not happening all the time.

[Stats2021]

10 minutes ago, bayessays said:

What class? If it's some theoretical class or analysis, dropping it could look l like you couldn't handle it. But in most cases, drops don't really matter as long as they're not happening all the time.

Good advice. It was a Bayesian course, so it sounds like it might be good to finish it out before graduating. I got a high B on the first exam and dropped shortly afterwards, so I think I could get at least a B (famous last words, right?)

[bayessays]

I don't think it'll be a huge deal either way. If you can get an A, any good grades will help, but I don't think a B vs W will be a game changer if it is inconvenient for you to retake the class. 

[Stats2021]

@bayessays hey, sorry to bug you - I'm about to finish first-semester real analysis, and it looks like I'll end up with an A. From my understanding, if I wanted to go a more applied route, a PhD in Biostats is a good option. Do you think I would be competitive at a program like UF?

[bayessays]

My guess is you would be competitive. It seems like a pretty applied program (they don't require or even recommend analysis, for instance), so I imagine the solid math background and MS will make you competitive even if your grades are a little low.