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Advices for 2022 Statistics Phd application

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Hey, I need some advcies for my potential school list for 2022 stat phd application and I also want to know my chances of getting an offer. Here's my applicant profile:
Grad Institution: Top Tier University of California 
Major(s):  Applied Statistics
Undergrad Institution: Small Private University in California (usnews ranking around 50)
Major(s):  Mathematics and Economics (Double Degree)
Type of Student: International Female

GRE General Test:
 166 (not so competitive among international students)
V: 157
GRE Subject Test in Mathematics: NA
Programs Applying: Statistics
Research Experience: one paper waiting for submitted to journal, one paper accepted to an Asian conference, 3 months ra experience, master thesis in progress
Pertinent Activities or Jobs:  3 years part time Math Tutor at my undergrad college, one semster of grader during undergrad, 1 year working experience as data analyst
Letters of Recommendation: havn't asked yet, probably 2 letter from my master program and 1  from the professor I worked with for the paper
And here's the potential list that I am currently thinking to apply.
Reach:ucb, Rice University, Caltech, duke university, standford, Yale, university of pennsylvania
Target: University of Florida, The University of Texas at Austin, UCI, UCSD, UCD, Georgia Institute of Technology, University of North Carolina--Chapel Hill, usc,ucsb, ucla, University of Washington, Boston University, Penn State University
Safety:  Texas A&M University , University of Georgia, Florida State University, ucr, ucsc, University of Iowa, Iowa State University


I am not sure if I am correct with these reach, safety and target schools based on my current profile. Funding is really important to me so I am wondering if there's any other universities that I can consider given my situation.  Thank you 

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It seems a bit like your rankings are based on undergrad admissions. I'm not as experienced as some other users on here (who will hopefully add their opinions), but Rice probably doesn't belong in the same tier as UCB, Stanford, and UPenn. Also, UT Austin, UNC, and UW are much more selective than the other schools in your "target" category and even some of the schools in your "reach" category. Lastly, Texas A&M is a very strong program that may not actually be a safety.

The US News rankings aren't perfect, but they can give you some idea of how difficult it is to get in to each of these programs (Yale and UT are outliers). As far as I'm aware, all of these programs will fund you if you are admitted, so don't worry about that until you are comparing offer letters.

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OP: Unfortunately, given that you are an international student and your undergrad GPA is on the low side, you will have to aim a lot lower for PhD admissions. Unless the lower GPA is due to poor performance in the first two years but then you managed to get straight A's in your third and fourth years, then it's going to be very tough to break into most of the top 50 Statistics PhD programs. For the record, the list you should be looking at is this one: https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-science-schools/statistics-rankings

I would say that all of your target/reach schools are unrealistic, and your list of safety schools is mostly unrealistic as well (not sure about UCR or UCSC, but the other ones on there would be difficult for you to get into). Even schools like UFlorida will be admitting mostly international students from the top universities in their respective home countries (or sometimes if they graduated from a top university in the U.S.A.). 

If you want a better sense of schools that you could shoot for, you should post the mathematics courses you have taken and the grades that you earned in them. Even without this info, I would say your best shot of getting admitted to a PhD program is to aim for schools in the 60-90 range of USNWR like University of South Carolina, Kansas State University, Virginia Commonwealth University, University of Missouri.

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Also, @Ryuk is right. Make sure you look at the USNWR rankings for a rough estimate of program prestige. Your list of schools contains some mismatches -- e.g. University of Washington and UNC-CH are quite selective/prestigious and would definitely be difficult for most people to get into, and TAMU would not be a "safety" for most people. I would probably only consider UWashington to be a "target" school and TAMU a "safety" for a superstar student who graduated at/near the top of their class (~4.0 GPA) from a top university and who took a ton of math classes (including graduate level classes like measure theory), plus got amazing recommendation letters and some research experience. That doesn't apply for most applicants.

Edited by Stat Assistant Professor
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