Backup plan / Reapplying Next Cycle (?)

[open_ball]

I'm applying to ~12 programs this cycle and I realize that I don't have the best chances of getting in, as they are top schools and I am pessimistic about my prospects. I'm feeling preemptively depressed as I have a clear idea of some research areas that I wish I could develop the necessary background to work on, but I don't think that it's possible if I'm not admitted to the right program (i.e., a place where people are working on things I am interested in).

To recap:

• My GPA is currently a 3.97 now but I'm not doing well in my graduate numerical analysis course currently. 
• I took 2 semesters of undergraduate real analysis (both As) and I have taken a graduate mathematics course before. However, I did not take measure theory as it is not offered to undergraduates at my school. 
• I have one publication in an undergrad math journal, I did a research assistantship related to ML, I did 2 applied math REUs, and I am doing a senior honors thesis
• I have no awards or external grants and I didn't apply for NSF.
• I have a lot of interests and I chose to apply to programs that reflected my interests, but I should have applied to some programs (NC State, Duke, UNC, etc.) that I didn't apply to because I was imbecilic and I didn't take the GRE.
• I attend a top 30 university, but that's not a factor in graduate admissions. 

For example, here are the stats programs I'm applying to: 

• Rice
• CMU
• Harvard
• UW
• Berkeley
• U of Chicago
• UCLA
• Yale
• Columbia
• CU Boulder (for applied math with a specialization in stats)

I don't want to be discouraged, but I have serious doubts about my prospects. 

I am applying to my alma mater for an applied mathematics PhD and I think I have a reasonable shot of getting in, but I don't actually want to stay in the area. I think my advisors agree that it would be best for me to leave, since my interests don't precisely align with the department. 

Suppose that I am rejected from all programs. If so, what shall I do? 

I really really don't want to pay for a master's degree.  

I have 3 options: 

1. Find a research assistantship and work for the next year.

2. Take the LSAT and attend law school. This seems like an insane direction to head towards, but originally in undergrad, I was pre-law. This is sort of a joke, but not really.

3. Find a job in the private sector. I believe that this is tough right now. 

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

Without knowing more about your background, it seems like you have a pretty solid background and should have a good shot at many programs. Are you a domestic student? Will you have solid letters of recommendation? What other math courses have you taken?

22 hours ago, open_ball said:

• I attend a top 30 university, but that's not a factor in graduate admissions. 

Someone with a solid GPA and rigorous coursework from a top 30 university will certainly be viewed favorably compared to someone with the same grades/coursework at an unknown university.

The problem is that your list of schools is a bunch of very selective programs, which is always risky. The application cycle isn't over yet, so you can always apply to one or two more match/safety schools (places like Texas A&M, Iowa State, Ohio State, etc.). These programs are still very well-regarded, but won't have the same universal "prestige" as the schools on your list. It just depends on your goals for your PhD and afterward. Do you want to go into academia? What are your research interests?

[open_ball]

1 hour ago, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

Without knowing more about your background, it seems like you have a pretty solid background and should have a good shot at many programs. Are you a domestic student? Will you have solid letters of recommendation? What other math courses have you taken?

Someone with a solid GPA and rigorous coursework from a top 30 university will certainly be viewed favorably compared to someone with the same grades/coursework at an unknown university.

The problem is that your list of schools is a bunch of very selective programs, which is always risky. The application cycle isn't over yet, so you can always apply to one or two more match/safety schools (places like Texas A&M, Iowa State, Ohio State, etc.). These programs are still very well-regarded, but won't have the same universal "prestige" as the schools on your list. It just depends on your goals for your PhD and afterward. Do you want to go into academia? What are your research interests?

I'm probably your average applicant to those kinds of programs (?).

According to historical data, of the programs that publish admissions data, they average at around a 10% annual acceptance rate. Assuming that I have the same probability of success at each program, I estimate that there is a 30-35% chance I get rejected from all the stats programs I apply to. 

I'm a domestic student and I am female, if that matters. I know some of my recommendations will be very good. I have 4-5 recommenders. 4 are math professors and one is from a biomedical engineering prof.

I thought Rice might be an ok "safety", but I'm not sure. I stalked their PhD students and I think that I would be a decent fit, esp due to my biomed applications background, but there are no safeties when it comes to grad school, really.

I took a lot of numerical analysis courses, math stats / probability, etc., machine learning reading course, etc. I don't think I took super rigorous coursework per se but I took the most rigorous courses that I had access to. For example, unfortunately, my school doesn't have undergrad measure theory nor Fourier Analysis. 

Edited November 22 by open_ball
Wording

[open_ball]

1 hour ago, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

Without knowing more about your background, it seems like you have a pretty solid background and should have a good shot at many programs. Are you a domestic student? Will you have solid letters of recommendation? What other math courses have you taken?

Someone with a solid GPA and rigorous coursework from a top 30 university will certainly be viewed favorably compared to someone with the same grades/coursework at an unknown university.

The problem is that your list of schools is a bunch of very selective programs, which is always risky. The application cycle isn't over yet, so you can always apply to one or two more match/safety schools (places like Texas A&M, Iowa State, Ohio State, etc.). These programs are still very well-regarded, but won't have the same universal "prestige" as the schools on your list. It just depends on your goals for your PhD and afterward. Do you want to go into academia? What are your research interests?

I would say lately I am very interested in Bayesian nonparametrics (esp. Gaussian processes), as well as statistical machine learning, statistical inference for dynamic systems, conformal prediction (I think this one may be on its way out, not sure how much theory there is left to develop), and in general also signal processing (I did an REU that was on basically signal processing). 

I see a few gaps in my math background that I need to fill. I'm taking measure theory (grad) in the spring, but I would also be interested in learning differential geometry, harmonic analysis, and functional analysis in order to be able to understand theory in some of the papers I read.  

I've been working on a project which uses Hamiltonian Monte Carlo under the hood, and I've become more and more interested in sampling methods, specifically computationally efficient and practical implementations of MCMC, but my school doesn't teach such things.  

In fact, I was talking to 2 of the only theoretical stats profs that we have, and I said that if we taught stochastic processes, very few of the undergrads would have the proper math background (myself included, since I didn't take measure theory).

Edited November 22 by open_ball
Wording

[Sstat]

I think your lists are too selective. I cannot guarantee success for these programs( not your fault, programs are too competitive) but if you include more safe options (like big state schools) I think you should be in a good shape. Top10-20 schools are still very good and some of them are actually very comparable to those schools on your list

[bayessays]

Your anxiety and self-criticism is jumping off the screen.  Please take a deep breath. I hope you talked about yourself more positively in your applications, because you have a great profile.  Yes, your list is top-heavy, and you should add more schools in the range of Rice (TAMU, Ohio State, Illinois, etc are great).  If you're interested in Bayesian nonparametrics, why aren't you applying to Texas and Duke?

It's only November 22nd.  You can send out 5 more applications and you'll be in great shape.

[bayessays]

I realized you said you didn't take the GRE, so maybe you can't apply to some of these schools. In that case, if you have to leave your list as-is for this year, then you can always just figure out something to do for a year if you don't get in anywhere -  yes, this could be research or an industry job, but it could also just be anything that you enjoy (depends a lot on your financial situation, obviously, but it won't be that hard to find a job that pays the same amount as a PhD program).  Taking a year (or two, or five) is not a big deal.