What are my chances for a good stat/biostat program?

[belligerent_hamster]

Hi everyone. This is my first post after scouring this forum and others for anything and everything so please bear with me. I thank you ahead of time for any advice. It is greatly appreciated.

Here is my current situation:

• I went to a well-regarded state school as an Electrical Engineering undergrad before dropping out/failing due to bad grades. I was stupid, didn't think about my future, and squandered the good opportunity I was given.
  
• I then went to community college and then a local, smaller university (stature, not size) and am finally graduating this semester with a 4.0 in Mathematics.
  
• I took the GRE not long ago and received a 164 (94%) in Verbal, 165 (93%) in Quantitative, and 4.0 in Analytical Writing (48%).
  
• I have good grades, but have not cultivated any meaningful out-of-classroom relationship with any of my professors. I expect that my letters of recommendation will most likely be good, but I am not sure whether they will be outstanding to an admissions committee.
  
• I have no research experience, but will be attending an NIH-sponsored Biostatistics Summer Program at NCSU (http://www.stat.ncsu.../programs/sibs/). This is NOT an REU.
  
• I made my decision to pursue Statistics late and past the admissions deadline, so I decided to work for one year. I will be in the IT industry maintaining a Linux computer cluster.
  

Given all this, I'd like to ask: What my chances are for being accepted to a good master's program? If I do have a chance, is there any possibility of getting into a top 5? 10? 15? 20? university in Statistics or Biostatistics?

[Igotnothin]

I think you're in good shape, especially with the SIBS program. I just went through the app process for PhD biostats programs and there were several other applicants at top schools that didn't really have research experience, but did SIBS and apparently the admissions committees liked that.

Do you have to say anything about your first undergrad experience on your app? If not, your app is a 4.0 in mathematics from undergrad (maybe not a reputable school, but that won't kill you), great GRE scores, and SIBS. I think you'll have a great success rate applying for Master's, even the very top schools, and depending on whether it's in line with your goals, you could probably get in to PhD programs as well. Whether you apply for MS or PhD, though, I would recommend applying to the schools that do SIBS, as they will naturally be pleased to see applicants coming out of their summer prep program. Should boost your chances.

Also I would think you could try to get to know some of the NCSU profs during SIBS and see if you can establish a good enough relationship with one of them to get a letter.

[cyberwulf]

Congrats on making such a strong academic 'comeback' after some early difficulties. Admissions committees tend to be sympathetic towards initial struggles if later results are much improved. That being said, how high you can reasonably aim depends a lot on the perception of your current institution. If it is little-known, there may be a question of whether your excellent grades are due to the fact that you've gotten your act together, or rather a lack of academic competition. You will definitely want to address the discrepancy between your initial and more recent academic performance in your personal statement; if you didn't apply yourself then but feel that you have now matured, say so!

Letters of recommendation are going to be very important for you. I disagree with the above poster about the importance of SIBS (having participated will have little impact on your chances of admission), but I concur that it would be a good idea to try to distinguish yourself enough to get a strong letter from a faculty member at NC State.

You probably have a good shot some fairly good Master's programs, and (depending on letters and transcript) perhaps some PhD programs as well. If you're thinking about going directly to PhD, you will probably be able to aim a bit higher (eg. top 10) in biostat than stat departments.

[Igotnothin]

Interesting to hear your take on SIBS cyberwulf. It may have been that the applicants I observed had great credentials aside from SIBS. I just remember being surprised at the number of students coming directly from undergrad with not much research, and a few had done SIBS so my perception was that it boosted their apps. Even at top-5 biostats programs there were a number of applicants coming straight from undergrad that had only done "internet research." For what's it's worth, again it's just my perception.

My impression from this past app season was that prospective students have a better shot at some of the top programs than they might expect. Michigan and UNC in particular accept a lot of students. I know that UNC accepts about 2x as many students as they expect to enroll, and they enroll something like 25-30 per year (I'm talking PhD).

[cyberwulf]

I just remember being surprised at the number of students coming directly from undergrad with not much research, and a few had done SIBS so my perception was that it boosted their apps. Even at top-5 biostats programs there were a number of applicants coming straight from undergrad that had only done "internet research."

Particularly in biostatistics, research experience means very little because so few students have the statistical background to do anything useful before they reach graduate school. Furthermore, the applicant pool in biostat remains relatively shallow, such that one can generally establish clear candidate rankings based on transcripts, letters, and standardized test scores. This is in stark contrast to medical school (for example), where adcoms are faced with hundreds of students who all have pretty similar profiles, and research experience can be one way to distinguish yourself.

My impression from this past app season was that prospective students have a better shot at some of the top programs than they might expect. Michigan and UNC in particular accept a lot of students. I know that UNC accepts about 2x as many students as they expect to enroll, and they enroll something like 25-30 per year (I'm talking PhD).

Few programs enroll more than 50% of the students they offer to on a regular basis, so most will offer at least 2n to get n. A good rule of thumb on the number of spots that a program has each year is to divide the total number of PhD students in the program by 4, and the number of Masters students by 2.

[belligerent_hamster]

I see that the importance of SIBS to admissions isn't so clear-cut. However, I will still learn/gain experience and hopefully get to know a few professors.

Thank you both Igotnothin for raising my expectations and cyberwulf for tempering them.