Extrapolating from Entering Classes

[atomnc]

Anyone have any idea what admittance rates are vs. enrollment figures? That is, even among top programs, students are frequently admitted to multiple schools and obviously can't attend them all.  So when an entering class is five students, how many did the program likely admit to start?  I know some of this is handled via waiting lists, whereby individuals not admitted initially are admitted later, so the program doesn't risk oversubscribing, but at the same time, it makes a big difference to think "5 enrolled of 142 applicants" vs "10 admitted of 142 applicants."  (These are seriously the marginalia I'm using to comfort myself through waiting right now).  I know some of it will depend on the competitiveness of the program, but just not really sure how to interpret the numbers.

[Usmivka]

This really varies by program. My partner applied to four schools, each of which took 3-5 students, and the same 5 or so were admitted to all of them. So after those 5 made up their minds, the schools started moving down the wait list and making admissions offers much later than the decision deadline. A semirelated point of etiquette here--if you are admitted to a lot of programs, please be courteous to everyone on a waitlist and decline the offers you definitely won't accept well prior to April 15!

 

In my program, they outright accepted about 60% more students than they wanted (aim for 40 in all sub-disciplines), assuming many would go elsewhere, but in my particular subfield (1 of 5, and about 1/4 of the students) nearly everyone admitted accepted the offer. So the school took a lot more students than they had planned, and ended up accepting fewer students the next year to compensate (by subfield admitted 4-5 last year, only 2 accepted). This year there are something like 300 applicants for 30 spots, and I assume they will again lean towards fewer admits and taking the savings if not all accept.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Usmivka

[Bearcat1]

I know two of the programs I applied to are expecting to admit 8-10 students, hoping for incoming cohorts of 5-6. 

[fuzzylogician]

In my program, in previous years they would accept 12 aiming for a class of 8 and it usually worked out. However recently we had 10 students accept, leading to a class of 6 the following year, and then 11 students accepted just last year. I think this may lead to a change in how many offers the program makes, but I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

[slaNYC]

This is really an interesting question. I applied and was admitted to a number of programs and one thing that I cared about was the make up of the cohort as I am an older student with lots of research experience. One school only accepts 2 students each year and that was less interesting to me. What if I didn't like that person considering this is someone theoretically I would be spending the next 5 years with? That said, the program I did select told me that too many people had accepted in previous years and so they were purposefully accepting fewer students.  I was told 9 applicants were admitted with the hopes that 4 to 5 would come. And guess how many came?  Two. Yep, it's true.  So there you go.  

[ridofme]

This is an interesting topic. I wonder if anyone has ideas about yield for professional programs, where cohorts are a lot larger (60-200 people for the various public policy programs to which I am applying). A lot of my target schools tout statistics like '1100 applicants for a class of 90', which makes it seem like an 8% acceptance rate. But when you think for an extra half second, you realize that one has no idea how many students they have to accept to get that incoming class of 90. I imagine that yield is lower in professional programs, as they tend to be unfunded, and a significant number of students might decide not to attend at all if they don't get those hard-to-come-by scholarships.

[TakeruK]

From talking to people at the schools I visited during prospective student visits, they say that most programs generally expect about 30% to 40% of the people they admit to actually enroll. I think it also depends on the financial situation of the program -- they want to offer admission to as many good students as possible because if you waitlist someone, there's a good chance they will hear from another school (and accept that offer) first! But if you offer too many spots, there's a risk of having more students enrolled than desired. But if your department is well funded, then it can absorb abnormalities if 60% of the accepted students enroll instead of 40% in one year (then of course, they will adjust the numbers next year). 

 

However, I know that my current program doesn't seem to do the whole waitlist thing. They accept some number of students in the program each year and whatever number decide to enroll, that's the number they get! The numbers of enrolled students from the past few years range from 0 to 7 (with a very "tails heavy" [both tails] distribution).

 

So I think it really does vary between schools and programs! I found that most departments were very willing to tell us about these numbers while we were visiting (of course, by then, we already knew that school's decision but it was still interesting to know). By numbers, I mean most places said something like "You're part of the X students we accepted out of Y applicants and invited for a visit. We usually have an incoming class size of Z".

Edited January 15, 2013 by TakeruK