2nd Year PhD Student Profile Evaluation

[anibalem]

Hi guys, I'm a second year international PhD student in a top 100+ US program. I just finished taking all the courses and presenting my thesis proposal. I'm seriously thinking in applying to better ranked programs for 2014. Although I passed both macro and micro qualifying exams, my first year grades were terrible (1st year PhD GPA 3.04). I would like you guys, if possible, to evaluate my profile and tell me my chances of being admitted to a top 40 program:

PROFILE:
Type of Undergrad: Unknown Latin American University
Undergrad GPA: 3.3 (roughly conversion)
Type of Grad 1: Top Latin American University (MSc Statistics)
Grad 1 GPA: 3.25
Type of Grad 2: Top 100+ US University (first 2 years of a PhD in Economics)
Grad 2 GPA: 3.6 (4.0 last 12 months)
GRE: 170Q 155V 4.5AW

Math and Stat Courses (grad level): Probability and Statistics ©,Time Series Analysis 1 and 2 (B, , Copula Models (A), Econometric Methods 1, 2 and 3 (B-, B+, B+). Most recent: Advanced Econometrics 1, 2 and 3 (A, A, A), Adv. Theory of Prob and Stat 1 and 2 (A, A), Real Analysis (A)
Math and Stat Courses (undergrad level): Calculus 1, 2 and 3, Linear Algebra, Intro to Probability and Statistics 1, 2 and 3, Regression Analysis, Math for Economists 1, 2 and 3, Intro to Real Analysis 1 (don`t remember all grades, but a mix of A`s and B`s). Most Recent: Intro to topology (A), Advanced Calculus (A).
Econ Courses (grad-level): Macroeconomic Theory 1,2 and 3 (C+, A and C+); Microeconomic Theory 1, 2 and 3 (C+, B-, A-) , Math Methods of Asset Pricing (A), Quantitative Risk Management (A). Most Recent: Advanced Macroeconomics (A, A, A) 

Econ Courses (undergrad-level): Intro to Macro and Micro 1 and 2, Intermediate Micro 1 and 2, Intermediate Macro 1 and 2, Monetary Economics, and other standard undergrad economics courses (mostly B, B+ and A-)

Other Courses: Summer course in Probability. 

Letters of Recommendation: 4 professors of my thesis comittee. All should be pretty solid, since they really liked my thesis proposal and, according to them, my performance in the last year was among top students in the department. Probably they will highlight that on their letter of recommendation. Recommenders 1 and 2: my two co-advisors (UCSD PhD`s), with whom I've been working with since last year. They have a lot to talk about my research abilities. Recommender 3: Chair of the department, top 5% in IDEAS Repec, really famous econometrician. He will probably give me a very good letter of recommendation. I was also his TA for one quarter. Recommender 4: Macro professor (UPenn PhD), knows me really well and it is also known by many macro people.

Research Experience: MSc dissertation, term papers in econometrics and macro and my PhD thesis proposal. 

Teaching Experience: TA of Mathematical Economics during my undergrad and 1 year TA of Statistics for Economists 

Research Interests: Econometrics

SOP: Pretty good, I think, although I`m still working on it. I highlighted my masters and PhD research experience and how it aligns to each program. Also tried to explain that, despite my first year poor grades in the PhD program, I mastered the material by passing the first year qualifying exams at the highest level. 

Concerns: Poor undergrad GPA. Poor grad GPA in key courses (except for the last 12 months). No publications yet, although my PhD thesis proposal and/or term paper might be a good writing sample.

Other: Passed in the top 20% of a very competitive exam for the admission of masters in statistics.

Applying to: 
Level 1 (Dream Schools): Chicago, Princeton, UPenn, UCSD, UC Berkeley, Duke, LSE, WashU.
Level 2 (More Realistic, I think) BU, MSU, Wisconsin, OSU, UNC-Chapel Hill, Carlos III Madrid (Masters), McGill, USC.

[jeffster]

Why do you want to leave the program you're doing so well in?  Are they not funding you?

 

Are you sure your current professors would be happy to write LORs for you while you use their program as a stepping-stone to get into another one?

[Eigen]

You do realize there's a large chance you'll be essentially starting your PhD over completely if you transfer schools, right?