Setting expectations

[MauBicara]

Hi all,

I am joining many of you in the struggle of applying for PhD programs. At this point, I'm certain I want to pursue a doctorate-- but I'm a bit on the fence as to what I can realistically expect to get into. 

Undergrad: Mid-tier private university. 
Major(s)/Minor(s): International Relations 
Undergrad GPA: 3.95
Master's: Top 10 Canadian university, International Development Studies
Grad GPA: 4.13 GPA (4.0 if A+s aren't weighted). 
GRE: Taking it in September-- practice tests have so far put me at 160-165v/155-160q

Subfield/Research Interests: Comparative politics/political economy: democratic transition, decentralization, regional organizations. I generally approach these topics in the Indonesian context.
Letters of Recommendation: I expect one very strong letter from my MA supervisor, who is fairly well known in political economy, and another very strong letter from the department chair at my undergrad. Third letter will likely be good-- most probably coming from the graduate director at my current institution. 
Research Experience: At the undergrad level, I did two independent research theses, and presented at the university's UG research conference. I am currently authoring my MA thesis, which entailed field work in Indonesia (my country of focus). I have had a related paper accepted for presentation at a conference. No publications, though I will try to change that by the time my applications are submitted. 

Teaching Experience: Three semesters as a TA. Very highly rated in student and supervising professor reviews.  
Other: Prior internship (6 years ago) at a US congressperson's district office. Research internship (long distance) with a US-government agency branch in Indonesia. B1 proficiency in Indonesian language (which I will be improving on with in-country language training next summer). Additionally, I have received three semester-long fellowships through my university, and conducted my field research with the support of a research travel award from the university. 

 

In general, I think these stats are pretty good-- though my main worries are whether I'll be hurt by a lack of publications and the lackluster prestige of the institutions I've attended. Assuming the GRE practice results are roughly accurate (though I will continue studying and hope to bump those numbers up), what level of institution can I reasonably expect to have a chance getting into? I've come up with a tentative list of 10 programs I'll expect to apply to, which includes a couple top 20s, and then the rest are scattered throughout the top 50. I know that there's no surefire way to predict admissions, but have I set my sights on roughly the right range of schools?

Edited August 18, 2015 by MauBicara

[rwillh11]

your profile is pretty similar to mine, and I ended up getting into my top two choices, and am attending a "top-5". I actually regret not applying to more "top" schools-I think I would have ended up where I ended up even if I had applied and been accepted to all the top schools, but I definitely undersold myself when I was applying. The only thing I had that you don't was a 170/170 on the GRE, but I have no idea how much that matters.

My advice would be, sure apply to a few top 50, but if you are going to apply to 10 programs, maybe 3-5 top 10, 3-4 10-25, and a few "safety" if need be. Fit really matters...but I would be very surprised if you can't get into a top-20 program. Also, apply widely...the application fees suck, but if you are on the fence about whether to apply to a specific school, but could see yourself attending if accepted, apply.

I am in comparative, but know nothing about Indonesia, but I would suggest maybe broadening your focus to all of SE Asia...I don't think there are a ton of "Indonesia" scholars per se, but I know that a lot of the big departments do have people doing SE Asia generally. And of course, the comparative methodology traditionally does involving comparison of multiple cases.