Low GPA from upper-ranked institution (Stanford), how will adcoms view this?

[notasworried]

Hey guys. So I've applied for a few Statistics and Biostatistics programs this cycle, and I really should have asked this before I started my applications. I'm a senior at Stanford, with the unfortunate distinction of having a rather poor GPA (between 3.4 and 3.5). My major is Mathematical and Computational Science, and unfortunately, the cause of my low GPA is some poor grades in some important math courses (Bs in Modern Mathematics: Continuous Methods, basically multivariate analysis with other proof-based topics). I also received a few Bs in Statistics courses (such as Intro to Time Series and Bayesian Statistics). My core grades (Calculus and Linear Algebra) are at around the A- mark. I have done a bit of research, but nothing too substantial (I'm a lot more interested in theoretical statistics than applied).

I decided that my grades were too poor to be competitive for top-ranked Statistics and Biostatistics programs, so I applied for schools in a range starting from just outside these programs (such as Wisconsin, Duke, etc.) to some lower ranked programs (30-50 in the US News rankings). I know its still a little early to hear back from the programs I applied to, but I am very worried since I haven't heard any news whatsoever about my applications. All the admissions statistics that I could dig up indicate that the average GPA of admitted students tends to hover at around the 3.9 mark, which I deviate very heavily from. I would really love to continue my graduate education in Statistics, and if I am rejected from every program that I apply to, is there anything I could do to make myself a more competitive candidate for next year's admissions cycle? Is applying to middle-tier Statistics graduate programs aiming too high for me? Does it matter to adcoms that I attended (what is usually considered to be) an upper-tier institution? 

Edited January 27, 2017 by reallyworried

[MsHypatia]

Hello @reallyworried. I'm not an expert as I'm just another applicant essentially in the same boat you're in. That being said, there are two things to keep in mind: it's still early, very early and your GPA is only one element of your application. Committees will look at your GPA, yes, but they will also take into account your undergraduate institution, GRE scores, statement of purpose, relevant experiences and awards, and perhaps more importantly, your letters of recommendation. If it were me, I would give it about two to three weeks at least before I started putting together a backup plan. Good luck!

[notasworried]

Thanks for the words of encouragement! I was just recently accepted into a program that I didn't think I was competitive for in the slightest, so I guess I can finally stop worrying and checking the results section every 10 minutes now. Hope you have similar luck with your applications!

Edited February 1, 2017 by reallyworried

[leafpile]

Hi @reallyworried.  Just curious, were you applying to PhD programs or MS programs in stats/biostats? 

Edited February 4, 2017 by leafpile

[notasworried]

1 hour ago, leafpile said:

Hi @reallyworried.  Just curious, were you applying to PhD programs or MS programs in stats/biostats? 

I applied for all PhD programs (because I am relatively sure that I want to stay in academia). I don't have enough money to pay for a Masters program, and even if I were accepted to Masters programs, my end goal would be a PhD anyway. Thankfully, it worked out for me.

Edited February 4, 2017 by reallyworried