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The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

The following argument is flawed for numerous reasons. There are a lot of assumptions stated in the argument that have no basis.

Firstly, by limiting the number of moped rentals does not imply that the number of accidents will decrease because the citizens of Balmer Island may be rich enough to buy a moped themselves rather than taking it on rent.

Also, though mopeds are a popular means of transport it does not mean that there isn't any other form of transport available and vastly used by the citizens.

The above argument also assumes that the citizens of Balmer are the same as the citizens of Seaville, as it might be true that the citizens of the latter might be more calm and careful not breaking traffic rules and using their vehicles within the speed limit. Whereas, this might not be the case with Balmer Island where its citizens are young and hence tend to drive their mopeds in a rash manner causing accidents.

This argument could have been more specific had it provided the details of the age of citizens in both the Islands and also the cost of a moped and whether or not it can be afforded by an individual in Balmer. Therefore, since the argument makes several unwarranted assumptions, a definite conclusion on this matter cannot be drawn. 

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