Thinking of getting a PhD in Statistics. What are my chances?

[alphaQtip]

Hey all. I've been thinking about this for a while and am almost sure that I want get a PhD in Statistics. However, I'm not sure if my stats are good enough as of right now. I'm a really anxious person by the way. I was wondering if anyone could be so kind as to just tell me what are my chances as of right now and anything I can do to improve them? Thanks!

Undergrad/grad Institution:  Top 30 Undergrad Institution; Top 10 Math program
Major: Mathematics
GPA: 3.65/4.0 cumulative, 3.71/4.0 major 

Type of Student: Domestic

Relevant Courses: 

Linear Algebra (A), Honors Analysis I (B), Honors Analysis II (A), Graduate PDE (A-), Undergrad PDE (B+) Calculus I-III (A), Honors Algebra I (A-), Honors Algebra II (A-), Theory of Probability (A-), Statistics (A-), Complex Variables (A-), Calculus of Variations (A-)

GRE: 

Still have to take it

Programs Applying: 

Statistics PhD

Research Experience: 

Spent last Summer doing an REU

Recommendation Letter: 

Two Strong, 1 Good

Coding Experience:

R, Matlab, Python

Other experience: 

I've been a Grader/Tutor for the Math Dept for the past 2 years.

Awards/Honors:  

N/A

School of Interests:

Columbia

Stanford

Harvard

Yale

UNC

UW

UCLA

Emory

Ohio State University

Am I being realistic or am I in way over my head?

[Bayesian1701]

I am applying for fall 2018 admissions so I am not an expert, but I have read the past admissions profiles and survey results so many times I almost have them memorized.  

Your list is a little top heavy, but you have great grades from a good institution.  You won't get in everywhere with that list, but maybe 2-4 places on the list assuming a good GRE.  Try to get some more research experience (if possible), and study for the GRE.   Take a general GRE practice test as soon as you can.  Ideally, you would have 167+ on quant and 160 on verbal, and 80%+ percentile on the math subject test.  I would consider signing up for the April 2018 math GRE and take the general by August or September.  I recently wrote a post with general GRE advice here.  I was worried about the process too and adding safer (no school is a safety school though) programs on my list made me personally feel better.   You can read last years profiles here and you can find more by searching.  Also be prepared to spend $1000-1500 on application fees (Columbia's was $110), GREs, and sending transcripts/score reports.  Texas A&M had a free application this year that required no official score reports or transcripts and if they do that again so should consider adding them to your list.  

[statfan]

19 hours ago, Bayesian1701 said:

I am applying for fall 2018 admissions so I am not an expert, but I have read the past admissions profiles and survey results so many times I almost have them memorized.  

Your list is a little top heavy, but you have great grades from a good institution.  You won't get in everywhere with that list, but maybe 2-4 places on the list assuming a good GRE.  Try to get some more research experience (if possible), and study for the GRE.   Take a general GRE practice test as soon as you can.  Ideally, you would have 167+ on quant and 160 on verbal, and 80%+ percentile on the math subject test.  I would consider signing up for the April 2018 math GRE and take the general by August or September.  I recently wrote a post with general GRE advice here.  I was worried about the process too and adding safer (no school is a safety school though) programs on my list made me personally feel better.   You can read last years profiles here and you can find more by searching.  Also be prepared to spend $1000-1500 on application fees (Columbia's was $110), GREs, and sending transcripts/score reports.  Texas A&M had a free application this year that required no official score reports or transcripts and if they do that again so should consider adding them to your list.  

You are missing the point here. GRE is a filter and they only care about the quantitative section. You should score high in quant in order not to be weeded out during the screening process. You would be fine if you do not bomb the other two sections. Except a few schools, others do not care about the math GRE. That being said, do not submit the score unless you are very confident of doing well. Also, OP did not ask anything about the application fee, it's up to OP to consider this and I don't understand why you brought this up.

Edited January 4, 2018 by statfan

[bayessays]

Honestly, I think the first 6 programs are going to be huge reaches.  I would think UCLA, Emory, Ohio State should the the types of schools you target but those are by no means guarantees, with some safeties and reaches thrown in there.  

[Bayesian1701]

4 hours ago, statfan said:

You are missing the point here. GRE is a filter and they only care about the quantitative section. You should score high in quant in order not to be weeded out during the screening process. You would be fine if you do not bomb the other two sections. Except a few schools, others do not care about the math GRE. That being said, do not submit the score unless you are very confident of doing well. Also, OP did not ask anything about the application fee, it's up to OP to consider this and I don't understand why you brought this up.

My point was more to aim high on the GRE, because a high score certainly won't hurt you but a low score might.  I understand it is a screener and possibly a tiebreaker on borderline cases.  Also I agree most schools don't care about the math subject test, but over half of the schools on OP's list recommend or require it.  I didn't take it but I would not have sent the score until I knew what it was, and the only reason I used my free reports on the general was that I was confident it would be "good enough".  Perhaps I should have clarified that those scores are goals that seem to represent average acceptance, I know you don't need them to get in but they would help.   GREs are used as a weedout so the goal is to not be weeded out.  I mentioned applications fees because I wish I would have known sooner how expensive it is to apply.   The OP may have been aware of this, but they may not have. 

[statfan]

12 hours ago, Bayesian1701 said:

My point was more to aim high on the GRE, because a high score certainly won't hurt you but a low score might.  I understand it is a screener and possibly a tiebreaker on borderline cases.  Also I agree most schools don't care about the math subject test, but over half of the schools on OP's list recommend or require it.  I didn't take it but I would not have sent the score until I knew what it was, and the only reason I used my free reports on the general was that I was confident it would be "good enough".  Perhaps I should have clarified that those scores are goals that seem to represent average acceptance, I know you don't need them to get in but they would help.   GREs are used as a weedout so the goal is to not be weeded out.  I mentioned applications fees because I wish I would have known sooner how expensive it is to apply.   The OP may have been aware of this, but they may not have. 

Only Stanford requires the math GRE. UW and Columbia recommend it. However, neither the general GRE nor the math GRE plays a decisive role when it comes to admission. Math/stat background and recommendation letters play a much more important role than the GREs.Time is a fixed constraint and you should prioritize the things that matter most. I wouldn't sweat too much on the GREs but instead focusing on research and upper-year/grad level math/stat courses.