Yes. Last year there were 64 HMs that got "bumped up" because there are 2,064 awards on the results page. Statistically, it's unlikely, but it's based on the strength of your application, so maybe your reviews will give you an indication if you have a chance of being one of the lucky ones.
Probably because in past years some users have used a "trick" to see their results early by "forgetting" their usernames. Don't ask me how it worked, though. I don't know.
Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, as they say. I have quite a bit of outreach experience, but no publications. I will be delighted if I get an award, but I won't be devastated if I don't. I said this earlier, but most people do not get an award; don't beat yourself up if you don't get it. Just be happy if you do.