CautiouslyHopeful

That's exactly what I did with Duke when I was not part of the first wave of admits, and I was just admitted to the MA program a couple of hours ago. I emailed the program director and one of the admin personnel and said something along the lines of "in the case that I am not admitted to the PhD program, would it be possible for my application to be considered for the MA program in political science?". I also included a line or two explaining why I only applied to the PhD program since that was, and still is, my ultimate goal etc. He emailed me back (program director) and said that the MA was unfunded and said that he would see about getting my application to the MA admission committee if I was still interested. I said I was, and he emailed me a few days later saying my application had been sent to the MA adcom.
 
At the time I made the request, I had been rejected by UCSD and Emory (after interviewing), and because most of the programs I applied to were generally ranked above Emory, I was worried I would not get into a top program. I got into UCLA a few days later, so my worries were a bit premature, but I don't think it hurts to develop back-up plans. I don't think it hurts at all. Hope this helps. I wish you the best of luck, and I really hope you get good news soon!

Glad I'm not alone on being committed to a second round. Looking pretty clear that I'm not going to get in this time. Even just looking back on my applications a couple months later I can see where I had huge weaknesses and can really improve. Having a steady job that I enjoy and is directly relevant to my research interests certainly makes the rejections easier to take and waiting another year less of a big deal. 

Long time lurker here! Just found out I got into Berkeley (IR). Great way to start my morning here in Asia

Ugh, no word from Stanford or Yale, but scanning my junk folder, I see I'm being heavily recruited by the University of Phoenix :-) I'll take what I can get!

Schools be playin' with my heartstrings today...

No it is not safe to assume this. If and when they decide to reject you, they'll send the letter. Admissions is like quantum physics. Until the decision takes a final form that you observe, i.e. a letter in your hand, and not your inference based on the unreliable information of a message board, it's an unknown.

Man, phone calls with POI's can be pretty awkward! Especially when they somehow magically call you the moment you step out of the shower/are asleep. Maybe we should start another thread with some intelligent questions to ask on calls/grad visits? I feel like I am opening my mouth and out comes "uh. I like school. How is school?"

So Emory emailed me back and said decisions would be out by the end of the week. I didn't interview or get invited to the visitation weekend though, so I'm kind of confused. But. Uhm. Fingers crossed! I really, really love Emory's fit with me.
 
Just received my first official rejection, ick. Bye UW-M.

Good Day Everyone,
 
The first order of the day is my deep sorrow for those who have received rejects for the past couple of weeks. For those who have received more positive news all I can say is congratulations and I wish you the best of luck as you begin the next chapter of your life. 
 
To note the numbers of those viewing this post I find it sad that I check this forum every hour even though I did not apply anywhere. I think that speaks plenty about my life and how much time I have about my life.  
 
I hope everything goes well for all of you as you patiently wait to hear any news.
 
All my best,
 
-P 

It really isn't instructive to think of the average ratio, as this varies a lot depending on a school's expected yield ratio. Some data on this exists to get a sense of the variance: UCLA, for instance, admits approximately 60 students each year (19% of total applicants) with the aim of getting a cohort of about 20-22, so about a 33% yield rate (possibly with a few people moving in from the waitlist). [1]. Duke admits about 35 students (11%), with the expectations of about 30-40% yield, leading to a cohort of 12-18 ish.[2] Princeton admits about 40 (8%) with the aim of a cohort of about 20-23 (50-57% yield).[3] Michigan admits about 18 students (5%) aiming for a cohort of about 12 (65% yield).[4] I've heard Harvard's yield is something ridiculous like 24/27, but I don't have the data on it. So something like 3:1 might be an OK approximation for schools outside the top six or seven, but it's hard to say.
 
[1] http://www.gdnet.ucla.edu/asis/progprofile/result.asp?selectmajor=0699
[2] http://gradschool.duke.edu/about/statistics/admitpol.htm
[3] http://www.princeton.edu/politics/graduate/prospective/faqs/
[4] http://www.lsa.umich.edu/polisci/graduate/admissions/faq