The statistics program I am in is top ten, there are a handful of schools that would be considered better. Graduate students are mostly international and undergraduate students are mostly domestic. The competition in graduate school is global. The courses taken in graduate school are harder and the competition is certainly stiffer at my graduate program than any undergraduate group in the country. A good gpa at a good undergrad seems to imply a high probability of success in grad school, but a good gpa at a high ranked graduate program implies that success is certain. So we have a probabilistic event compared to an event on a set of measure one. Furthermore, few undergraduates do not have research at the graduate level.
At my institution the masters and phd students are in the same group, take the same classes, and are on the same track until qualifiers. Masters can switch to phd track at faculty discretion, which I was offered but I can't stay in this area.
Only half of undergraduate courses are major related, so 60 relevant credits. Only about 45 of those will be on the application. I am on my second masters so I will have over 30 from my first master plus 9 next semester. About 45 credits for the undergrad compared to about 40 for me.
Isn't getting a 4.0 at a high ranked institution after getting bad gpa at a low ranked institution a testament to a persons perseverance and resilience. A low gpa at a low level may imply a lack of ability, but a high gpa at a higher level would contradict and override that implication. If a player walked away from a junior tennis career then came back to the game ten years later to win a pro championship that player still has a lack of ability? This is holding onto a belief that is contradicted by the facts of reality, it defies logic.
This is all I have to say about this. Try as I may, I can not provide an objective opinion on my own profile so I will await the decisions for next year. Good luck everyone and I hope to see some of you out there!