I did quite a bit of research into this before deciding to attend Temple/reject offers from some more prestigious programs. I looked at faculty CVs at the sort of places I'd like to work, and I straight up asked profs about it as well. Here are the factors that drove my decision:
*There seemed to be a limited consensus that program prestige matters, but mainly as a tiebreaker between otherwise qualified candidates. E.g., if two candidates have similar pub records, similar letters of rec, roughly equal interviews, then the penn alum is gonna beat the random school alum most of the time.
*There was a stronger consensus that your adviser's prestige/reputation matters more than the program's prestige/reputation. So, if you're at a really good school but your adviser has a very poor track record, you're probably worse off than somebody at a lesser program with a very strong adviser.
*The quality of your work, especially as reflected by your publication record, is the thing that gets you in the door. To that extent, a lesser program can be a big advantage if you're a big fish and you get lots of opportunities to jump on papers/work with faculty. I think every prof I talked to told me that more/better publications >> better program. So, if you can be a big fish at annenberg, that's optimal. But if you're gonna be jockeying with other students for spots on papers all the time, a lesser program might be a better option. And, like, way nicer from a lifestyle perspective.
But, I'm not on the job market yet. So maybe I'm 2 years away from crying into my bowl at the shelter...