You also got an email from IU's DGS a few weeks ago saying you'd 'likely' get an offer, right? It's now been almost 3 weeks and I'm starting to wonder.
I contacted Penn today. I got a " I've sent your message along to Prof. Nathans, and he may be able to tell you where the committee is regarding its final decisions.
Good Luck to you." whomp.
They didn't specify. The response I got was
"All decisions regarding PhD applications will be released this week."
I emailed UCLA also...but no response.