Agree with above, especially as it isn't even April 15 yet. Plenty of people turn down previously accepted offers after April 15 upon getting off the waitlist at programs they prefer more, so this shouldn't be a big issue. You're the one committing five or more years of your life to a program, so make sure you don't have any misgivings about attending the right program.
Top 3? I think Stanford stands out with Fearon/Laitin/Weinstein. MIT also has strong faculty with Petersen/Christia/Bateson. Berkeley, UCSD, and Chicago have some good scholars too, and Columbia should probably in the conversation as well.