PROFILE:
Type of Undergrad Institution: Top university in my country that is very well connected to US (all professors have their PhDs from top 50 departments in the US)
Major(s)/Minor(s): Political Science
Undergrad GPA: 3.1 (I think thisis the weakest part of my application. The reason is that I only studied for courses I liked and worked part-time throughout my undergrad. My professors told me it is not a major issue and they will touch upon that in their LORs and the grades in my university tend to be lower than the US averages)
Masters GPA: 3.8
GRE: Haven't taken yet but I expect to get 169-170 in Quant and around 150-155 in Verbal
Writing Sample: A paper that is currently under review in one of the top journals in political science, a part of my master thesis
Letters of Recommendation: One letter from junior professor that knows me really well for whose project I am the graduate research assistant. Another letter from junior professor that knows me really well with whom I am writing a paper right now. I expect these to be really strong letters since they are my co-advisors and encourage me to apply to the top 20 programs in the US. Lastly from a very-well known professor that has listened to my paper presentation before and told me she enjoyed it very much. I took also took AA from her graduate course. I expect this recommendation to be good but weaker since she knows me less than other professors. All three have their PhDs from top 25.
Research Experience: I have four solo authored papers under review in well known journals. Two papers in making. One on-going paper with 2 professors. I am also graduate assistant to a project (data-set creation, management, data-analysis, training of other coders etc.). I am also a RA (data analysis and collection) to a huge and very well known project based in one of the top universities in the US led by a very well known professor. I have experience with advanced spatial analysis as well as qualitative research.
Language skills: My native language, English and German
Software: R and GeoDa, also somewhat familiar with Python and NetLogo
Subfield/Research Interests: My work is mostly on political violence especially civil wars, closer to comparative politics but also talks to international relations.
I am applying to 11 programs in top 40. Most between 20 and 40. What do you think my chances are? is this a bad strategy? Thanks in advance.