my future is history

@ Barricades: It shouldn't be a problem if you're applying straight from undergrad to grad school. I think if you're applying with an MA you should have a narrower research area, but from undergrad a broader SoP should be fine. I still have my SoP from Wisc (where I'm at now) and my interests were so broad and vague it's embarrassing to look at now. @ Badgerhopeful I guess I'm applying as a transfer student, but I'm sure I'll have to redo the coursework portion either way. Hopefully I won't have to do another MA thesis though. Also send me a PM if you have any questions about UW, I can give you my email.

Schools: Harvard Stanford U Chicago Stats: GRE: 760 Math 740 Verbal GPA: 4.0 Languages: Native English, fluent Japanese (incl. classical), fluent Korean (incl. classical), intermediate Chinese (no classical) LoR includes my adviser, who was a dissertation reader for potential adviser's diss at Stanford. She's well known in field and turned down a spot at Berkeley. I'm actually pretty happy at Wisc, my adviser is made up of four parts win and three parts awesome. I'd just like to go somewhere with a package. The funding situation here, while not the worst, is definitely stressful. Also on the job market, having more of a brand name doesn't hurt...

An eager adviser could very well contact you very early. I got a phone call from a potential adviser from UCD in early January as an undergrad. In the end it was a choice between a four year package at UCD that started my second year, or a FLAS at Wisc with a great adviser. (I chose Wisc). So anyways, contact in January is not out of the picture.

I don't think your situation is that bad. I was accepted fully funded into a top tier MA/PhD program with a horrible GPA (roughly 3.2) from a third-tier state school (Oregon State University). My LoR situation wasn't especially great either -- one of my recs was written by an adjunct professor. I think what helped a lot in my case was my writing sample, my GRE scores (740V, 760M), and language abilities (research fluency in one E. Asian language, intermediate in another). But I would not underestimate language abilities, especially for area studies programs. My cohorts in the program all had significant language experience; the other guy who got the same fellowship had spent four years as an English teacher in E. Asia. My application also stressed language abilities, and my professors and I coordinated the LoRs with my SoP to stress language... But anyways I don't think simply coming from a third-tier school with second-tier professors is going to sink your application, and I would throw some "reach" schools into the mix. Good luck~