So, I caved and called NSF too, and got a slightly different answer. The woman who helped me said they're swamped with calls about it, but nobody knows anything official yet. She says that there is, quote, a "reasonable probability" that results will come out tonight, but the official announcement isn't made at GRFP headquarters until a few hours before the uploading begins, so she can't confirm for sure. She also said that once the decision to announce is official, an announcement will be posted at www.nsfgrfp.com, so we have something else to obsess about and check compulsively...