2019/2020 Stats PhD Profile Evaluation

[humber]

Going into my 3rd year and I've been thinking about graduating a year early (i.e., in 2019). Should I even consider graduating early and applying to PhD programs with the following profile? 

Undergrad Institution:  US Top-5 in Statistics
Major: Statistics 
GPA: 3.95
Major GPA: 4.0
Type of Student: Asian Canadian Male
Courses: Real Analysis (A), Probability Theory (A+), Statistics Theory (A+),  Linear Algebra 1-2 (A+, A), Data Computing (A+), Discrete Math (A+), Calculus 1-3 (all A+), Data Science (A)

Courses for Next Year: Real Analysis II,  Stochastic Processes, Abstract Algebra, Machine Learning, Numerical Analysis, Linear Modelling
 
GRE: 
Q: 169
V: 165
W: 5.5
 
Program Applying: Statistics PhD 
 
Research Experience: 1.5 years in psychology lab helping with database management and surveys (no publications). 1 semester in a independent reading project in pure math. 
 
Recommendation Letter: 1 from research advisor, 2 from professors/lecturers I've had. I don't expect any to be particularly strong.

Coding Experience: R, Python

Programs Considering:

• Michigan
• Wisconsin
• Toronto
• UCLA
• UC Irvine
• UT Austin
• Michigan State
• UC Santa Barabara

I've done well with the courses I've taken so far, but I've only really completed the bare requirements and I'm not sure if I should even consider applying for 2019. If I were to apply for 2020, I'd have actual grades for the courses I'm planning on taking next year instead of just "In Progress," a second major (math), and likely stronger recommendation letters. Any thoughts, comments, or advice would be much appreciated! 

[Bird Vision]

Are you in a hurry to graduate? Would it be prohibitively expensive to finish in 2020?

I personally would wait in order to have the best profile possible. A good compromise might be to apply to your absolute top choices this year, and apply again next year if you are not successful.

[humber]

I'm not really in a hurry to graduate - just something that I thought about when I realized I could hypothetically graduate next year.

Thanks for the suggestion! I think if anything it could be a good learning experience going through the whole application process, but I don't know if I'd just be throwing away time/money at a unrealistic chance.

[Bayesian1701]

I graduated a year early and am starting a Ph.D. program this fall at the age of 21.  If I could do it all over again,  I would take the extra year and do a few graduate courses during my fourth year.  It was not worth the money I saved. Somewhere in the process, I lost my love for pure math. Thankfully I still love statistics,  but the more abstract doesn't interest me anymore.  I didn't realize it was happening until it was too late.   You will also risk burnout which is the last thing you want when you are about to enter a stressful program.  You don't want to cram all of those upper level courses and overload yourself.  Take the year, try to get some more research experience and get a better feel for what you want.  

You could theoretically apply for Fall 2019 and stage a possibly last-minute August or May graduation after you receive decisions around February/March but it may cost you approximately $1000 in applications fees, and it will look weird if you apply again after being unsuccessful. I wouldn't try for an application round this year unless you are 100% certain that's what you want.

On the profile front,  your grades are great from a great department and your GRE is great.  Very few people have meaningful research experience,  but if you opt for a fourth year, you could probably get some more.  With the fourth year and good grades in the rest of your courses, you should be able to get into a great program.

[bayessays]

You go to a top 5 school, have perfect grades, and have already taken all the important classes along with having a perfect GRE score.  Waiting a whole year is a year of your life you'll never get back. You would already be in contention at any school you listed.  I think Michigan State is below the range you should be aiming for though.

 

Worst case scenario, you have to reapply a year later after having the third year of classes (being in the same boat as everyone with no disadvantage) and you can spend your 4th year's tuition to go travel through world or something. 

Edited July 23, 2018 by bayessays

[humber]

Thanks Bayesian1701 and bayessays - you've certainly given me a lot to think about!