Profile Evaluation: PhD in Statistics

[icantdoalgebra]

I'm going to be a senior in the Fall and am interested in applying for Statistics PhD (most likely 2020 cycle but a few questions on that).

Undergrad: UC Berkeley

Major: Math + Computer Science

GPA: 3.96

Student Type: Domestic, Asian Male

GRE and Math GRE haven't been taken yet

Courses:

Math: Honors Linear Algebra (A+), Honors Abstract Algebra (A), Honors Real Analysis (A-), Honors Complex Analysis (A+), Numerical Analysis (A+), Grad Analysis I and II (A, A)

Statistics: Probability Theory (A+), Mathematical Statistics (A+), Theoretical Statistics I, II (for PhD Students, A, A), will take grad probability in the fall

Computer Science: Intro to Programming (A), Data Structures (A), Discrete Math and Probability (A+), Intro Computer Architecture (A), Databases (A), Algorithms (A), AI (A), Machine Learning (A)

Programs Applying: Stats PhDs

Research Experience: Currently working with a professor and his students on some theoretical stuff, pushing to get it published in a top tier journal (I contributed in a somewhat nontrivial way, deriving some lower bounds)

Work Experience: Spent a summer at a startup doing some natural language processing, another summer at a quantitative asset management firm

Letter of Recommendation: Professor doing research with (hopefully would be decent, but one of the big names at Cal who is very busy and I rarely spent time with him so its hard to tell), another professor that I took Theoretical Statistics with (will also hopefully be decent as I think I stood out a decent amount in that class, actively participating and going to office hours), and I don't have a good choice for the third one (that's part of the issue)

I have two main questions here:

1) As I still need to take the GRE, and missing a recommendation letter, should I delay applying by a cycle? My thought were that I could spend my final year doing more research (and having some publications), getting a better letter of recs by interacting with the professors some more, and have extra time to prepare for the GRE. I was wondering about the marginal benefit of waiting a year and how much that would help my application.

2) What schools should I consider for my safeties if I do decide to apply this cycle? I want to apply to the top 10ish schools, but I don't know what else should I be considering.

[bayessays]

I'm sure you'd get into a top 10 program if you applied to all of them. I'd also probably apply to a couple of the bigger state schools ranked 10-20 like NCSU, PSU as relatively safe options. You won't have to go lower than that.  I wouldn't worry about the third letter.  If you have two strong ones from people who know you well, a letter just saying you are good at math won't hurt you.

If you're dead set on going to Stanford, you'll need to take the math GRE, but even schools like Chicago don't really require it, so I don't think there is any reason for you to delay applying unless you would like to take a year off for fun. 

[icantdoalgebra]

Sorry for letting the thread die without properly thanking you. I just had a few more questions I wanted to ask.

Updated Test Scores:

Math Subject Test: 840 (84th percentile)

GRE General: 170Q/168V

The first question I have is should I submit my GRE subject test scores to the schools I'm applying too that don't require but recommend it? I doubt anybody would question the rigor of a Berkeley math degree but the score isn't exactly high enough to impress anybody. 

The second is with regards to a proper school list: I'm likely going to apply to (but still subject to change are) Stanford, UC Berkeley, Harvard, Washington, Chicago, CMU, Duke, Michigan, NCSU, and PSU but I was wondering if this was a bit top heavy of a list. 

The third is with regards to the personal statement; obviously I should talk about the research I'm currently doing within it since its going to be submitted likely to a top journal and will at least be on arxiv before I apply, but I'm not too sure if I want to continue in doing work in BNP (although I did somewhat enjoy it) when I'm a grad student and would likely want to branch out into other areas.  How much should I discuss this within my personal statement? (Albeit this is in some sense a really bad question and probably something people don't really think about often)

The fourth is that when I often talk to my professors about which schools are strong within what areas of statistics, they usually only mention peer institutions to Berkeley (namely top 6 schools or so). What are some of the other schools that aren't ranked as highly but are still strong in high-dimensional stuff, nonparametrics, selective inference (like FDR control and stuff), and robust statistics (M-estimators and such)?

Thank you very much for your time!

Edited October 13, 2019 by icantdoalgebra

[Casorati]

I would submit it to all schools if I were you. Since the majority of the test takers apply to math phd, 84th percentile is a very good score for statistics. 

[cyberwulf]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you got in everywhere you applied.

So no, your list isn't too top-heavy.