How much will my masters degree boost my PhD chances for Fall 2021

[danny1997]

Hey all,

For the Fall 2019 admission cycle I applied with a 3.3ish GPA from a large state school and didn't get accepted to any PhD programs. After my first year of a masters from a well known school but unranked graduate program (no PhD option) I have all A's and A-'s and will finish the year with a GPA between 3.7 and 3.9 depending on how finals play out. I'm also planning on doing a thesis next year to gain research experience.

Realistically, how will this help my chances in the next cycle. I'll likely apply to some reaches (UPenn, Johns Hopkins AMS), some schools I was rejected from (Ohio State) and then some "safe" options (George Mason, UVA). Would having all A's and a good thesis help me crack top programs, or even the top 50 in general? I know there's a lot more at play then this, but I'm wondering what to expect for the next cycle so I can make good decisions while applying.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Your Masters degree should help for some schools, if you get really good letters of recommendation that can make the case that your mathematical abilities -- and your "research potential" -- are much stronger than your undergraduate record would suggest. I would suggest meeting with your letter writers and ensuring they can fervently make this case.

That said, I don't think UPenn is very realistic when this program only has 5 students matriculating every year (and at most 2 are domestic). For elite programs like this, not even a Masters degree will be able to compensate for a weak undergrad record. A more practical "reach" might be NCSU. It would be worthwhile also to try larger programs like Iowa State or TAMU, who might be more forgiving of the lower undergrad GPA if you have strong performance in your Masters program.

I'm not sure if UVA is a 'safety.' It seems like this program is somewhat selective. If you were getting rejected from schools in the tier of Ohio State before, then I think you should add more schools like Mizzou, University of South Carolina, and Arizona State to your list.

[movingtostats]

Hey! I am no expert on admissions but am a long time lurker on this platform, so take what I say with a grain of salt. First of all things will be very different depending on whether you are a domestic or international applicant. Also you should give more info about your major and math/stat courses taken in UG and masters. My suggestion would be to take as many grad level math courses and perform well in them. I don’t think taking grad level algebra courses makes sense as it doesn’t really apply to stats, grad level analysis courses will be better, also your LORs can be a factor that might help you overcome the GPA. UPenn is amongst THE most selective schools maybe even more than the likes of CMU so I wouldn’t count on this school. For JHU if you’re thinking about their applied math and stat dept then I don’t have good advice because even though it’s ranked low I am not sure about how easy or difficult it is to get in. But if you can get good grades in grad math classes and get good LORs then depending on your major and math courses taken in UG, hopefully schools like OSU should let you in. All of this advice applies if you are a domestic applicant, if you’re an international one then it’s going to be much more difficult. Again take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

[bayessays]

Yeah, I think you're setting your expectations way too high.  Even NCSU will be in the "extreme reach" category, and I think schools like OSU should be at the very top of your range.  For reference, I had a similar undegrad GPA from a better school, a 3.9 in my top MS program, and first-author publications and couldn't get into any top 20 schools, and was rejected from schools like OSU/Purdue as well.  So I think you should probably use my experience as sort of an upper-bound on your expectations and apply to a few reaches around 40 and then more schools in the range Postdoc suggested above.

[AC1]

Hi! Sorry for posting this in an unrelated forum. Can you tell me what are the top 20 schools for statistics? I have seen this in multiple forums and was wondering if you are referring to the USNews rankings for statistics?

[bayessays]

5 hours ago, AC1 said:

Hi! Sorry for posting this in an unrelated forum. Can you tell me what are the top 20 schools for statistics? I have seen this in multiple forums and was wondering if you are referring to the USNews rankings for statistics?

Yes, people are referring to US News. These are just easy ways to refer to programs by "tiers" of prestige.  The rankings are only approximate guides and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

[danny1997]

19 hours ago, Stat Postdoc Soon Faculty said:

Your Masters degree should help for some schools, if you get really good letters of recommendation that can make the case that your mathematical abilities -- and your "research potential" -- are much stronger than your undergraduate record would suggest. I would suggest meeting with your letter writers and ensuring they can fervently make this case.

That said, I don't think UPenn is very realistic when this program only has 5 students matriculating every year (and at most 2 are domestic). For elite programs like this, not even a Masters degree will be able to compensate for a weak undergrad record. A more practical "reach" might be NCSU. It would be worthwhile also to try larger programs like Iowa State or TAMU, who might be more forgiving of the lower undergrad GPA if you have strong performance in your Masters program.

I'm not sure if UVA is a 'safety.' It seems like this program is somewhat selective. If you were getting rejected from schools in the tier of Ohio State before, then I think you should add more schools like Mizzou, University of South Carolina, and Arizona State to your list.

Thank you for your help! I hadn't realized UPenn was that small of a program, I'll definitely be looking to apply to three or four programs in that range you listed instead of spending money to apply to such far reaches.

Also, with UVA I had been waitlisted last application season for the PhD program (although it seems so were a long list of people), so I was hoping the masters degree could push me through next cycle. Although I definitely can't bank on that as it will be a completely different applicant pool.