Will I get SHUT OUT of admissions?!

[ianfaircloud]

Unfortunately, many great candidates will be completely shut out of graduate admissions -- even candidates who applied to 20+ programs.  I did the math, and I won't repost everything here.  If the admissions process were completely random, and if you applied to 20 programs, and if the average acceptance rate at those programs is five percent, then your chance of being shut out is 36 percent!!!!!  That's ridiculously high, in my view.  If the average acceptance rate is ten percent, things look a little brighter.  (Who knows what the average acceptance rate is??)

 

http://faircloudblog.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/will-i-get-shut-out-of-admissions/

 

Anyway, I'd like to know everyone's thoughts.

[philstudent1991]

I applied to 13, all very competitive schools (incl 2 MA). I know I might get shut out, despite what in any other field seems like it would be a lock to get in, with 99% GRE scores and 4.0 major and great everything (who doesn't around here it seems). But for me, I didn't want to apply to "safety" schools because I know the job market is even more competitive, and so there's a certain threshold I didn't wanna go below. I think philosophy is intrinsically valuable, but I also want to have a job and make money one day. If I can make money doing philosophy, win win. So if I get shut out, I did my best and tried to make that dream come true and so be it. And if I get in, it'll be to a great school.

 

So, yes, some great candidates will get shut out. I think about that every day.

[DHumeDominates]

I applied to 13, all very competitive schools (incl 2 MA). I know I might get shut out, despite what in any other field seems like it would be a lock to get in, with 99% GRE scores and 4.0 major and great everything (who doesn't around here it seems). But for me, I didn't want to apply to "safety" schools because I know the job market is even more competitive, and so there's a certain threshold I didn't wanna go below. I think philosophy is intrinsically valuable, but I also want to have a job and make money one day. If I can make money doing philosophy, win win. So if I get shut out, I did my best and tried to make that dream come true and so be it. And if I get in, it'll be to a great school.

 

So, yes, some great candidates will get shut out. I think about that every day.

 

When I engage in higher-order reflection on my own reflection on the quality of my applications, the competitive applicant pool, and so on, I realize that I vascillate uncontrollably between despair at my prospects of admission, plain anxiety, and relative confidence that I'll be accepted (even by some highly ranked programs). I don't know what this shows (maybe nothing), but I do know that the vascillation itself is caused by extraordinarily trivial things certain to be irrelevant to admissions decisions -- like whether a co-worker confided in me that she loves reading Plato, whether I recently had an uplifting conversation with a friend, whether the supermarket ran out of Simply Limemade when I was really craving it.

Edited January 28, 2014 by DHumeDominates

[MattDest]

I think there are too many variables to have any meaningful data about chances of getting shut out. The average acceptance rate is going to vary depending on the list of schools one applies to. Someone who only applies to T25 schools is going to have a much lower average acceptance rate than someone who applies to a range of schools and some MA programs. 

 

There is also the question of application quality. There is no algorithm for determining quality of application, but it seems clear that not everyone is going to have equal chances. You also must consider the relative number of applicants in your AOI. Are there many competitive applicants with roughly similar AOIs to you? What is the total number of prospective applicants that might fall under similar research interests? How many people with your AOI is University X targeting (if they do this sort of thing)? 

 

It's a cool project - and I think it can give us a rough estimate about just how tough philosophy admissions is - but I don't know that we can begin to have meaningful data about this without isolating more of the variables. 

[ianfaircloud]

I think there are too many variables to have any meaningful data about chances of getting shut out. The average acceptance rate is going to vary depending on the list of schools one applies to. Someone who only applies to T25 schools is going to have a much lower average acceptance rate than someone who applies to a range of schools and some MA programs. 

 

There is also the question of application quality. There is no algorithm for determining quality of application, but it seems clear that not everyone is going to have equal chances. You also must consider the relative number of applicants in your AOI. Are there many competitive applicants with roughly similar AOIs to you? What is the total number of prospective applicants that might fall under similar research interests? How many people with your AOI is University X targeting (if they do this sort of thing)? 

 

It's a cool project - and I think it can give us a rough estimate about just how tough philosophy admissions is - but I don't know that we can begin to have meaningful data about this without isolating more of the variables. 

 

I appreciate your thoughtful reply, and I think there's much truth to what you're saying.  But I think it's an overstatement to say that we can't have meaningful data with regard to being shut out.

 

Surely you agree that if one applies to the top 20 programs in philosophy, even the very strongest candidates likely have not much better than a ten percent average chance of admission.  There's guessing involved here, but one's average chance of admission to each program can be roughly estimated.  I think I'd be a fool to think my chances are much better than ten percent on average.  And if that's the case, then the data is quite meaningful.

 

But yes, I agree with the sentiment in your words, namely that there are many, many variables, and one can't be sure of one's chances.

[philosophe]

While I am slightly worried about a shutout, the bigger and far more probable concern for me is what to do if I am only accepted to lower-tier schools. Philstudent1991 hit the nail on the head -- the job market is crappy enough for people who get their degrees from top institutions. There's definitely a at-what-point-is-it-worth-it feel. I'm worried about the possibility of having to choose between my pretty nice 9-5 and a lower tier school, and having to make decisions I may or may not regret.

 

Also, I agree with DHumeDominates... some days I'm totally confident and other days I think it'll be a miracle if anyone takes me. I imagine this is a rational, human response, though, considering the upcoming month will either bring victory or tragedy.

[wildc4t]

I noticed that one of the Duke acceptances says "accepted via website." Where does that appear on the Duke website?

[philstudent1991]

I noticed that one of the Duke acceptances says "accepted via website." Where does that appear on the Duke website?

you have to follow a link to an applicant site, from one of the emails they sent me is how I do it. I checked mine yesterday and it wasn't updated, for better or for worse.

[kant_get_in]

While I am slightly worried about a shutout, the bigger and far more probable concern for me is what to do if I am only accepted to lower-tier schools. Philstudent1991 hit the nail on the head -- the job market is crappy enough for people who get their degrees from top institutions. There's definitely a at-what-point-is-it-worth-it feel. I'm worried about the possibility of having to choose between my pretty nice 9-5 and a lower tier school, and having to make decisions I may or may not regret.

 

 

For what it's worth, I have plenty of friends who are financially comfortable (though modest) and happy as can be lecturing in philosophy or gaining tenure at a community college. 

[philosophe]

For what it's worth, I have plenty of friends who are financially comfortable (though modest) and happy as can be lecturing in philosophy or gaining tenure at a community college. 

 

That's definitely good to know. I'm just going to have some hard decisions to make. I've been out of school for a year and a half, working my way up in higher education. I have a pretty comfortable job at Harvard right now, and I would have to get into at least a decent school to drop it. Being a philosophy professor is definitely my dream, but if that means 7 years at a lower-ranked school and a questionable job market, I may need to stay with my current job and go the higher ed route. (My other aspiration is to be an academic dean). Time will tell.

[kant_get_in]

That's definitely good to know. I'm just going to have some hard decisions to make. I've been out of school for a year and a half, working my way up in higher education. I have a pretty comfortable job at Harvard right now, and I would have to get into at least a decent school to drop it. Being a philosophy professor is definitely my dream, but if that means 7 years at a lower-ranked school and a questionable job market, I may need to stay with my current job and go the higher ed route. (My other aspiration is to be an academic dean). Time will tell.

 

Well, it's also true that my friends didn't leave an academic job at Harvard for their positions. ha.

[Table]

I appreciate your thoughtful reply, and I think there's much truth to what you're saying.  But I think it's an overstatement to say that we can't have meaningful data with regard to being shut out.

 

It's not that we can't have meaningful data re: being shut out, it's that we don't. 

 

You're also assuming the events are independent… they're not. 

[ianfaircloud]

It's not that we can't have meaningful data re: being shut out, it's that we don't. 

 

You're also assuming the events are independent… they're not. 

Respectfully, that's incorrect.  All things considered, what is the average chance of being admitted to a program on your list of schools?  If it's ten percent -- and I think that's not too far off (in my case) -- then you can calculate the chance of being shut out.  The words 'all things considered' matter.

 

I'm surprised that you think the math doesn't tell us something meaningful about our chances.  That's a shocking claim.

 

Edited January 28, 2014 by ianfaircloud

[SelfHatingPhilosopher]

I'm surprised that you think the math doesn't tell us something meaningful about our chances.  That's a shocking claim.

That's not what he's saying. In fact, the purpose of the post you quoted was to state that this was in fact not his claim.

[ianfaircloud]

That's not what he's saying. In fact, the purpose of the post you quoted was to state that this was in fact not his claim.

 

To this claim: "We don't have meaningful data regarding being shut out."

I respond: Yes, we do.  Meaningful comes in degrees.  It *does* mean something that the top-20 programs admit between three and ten percent of their applicants.  And we can take an educated guess what it means for us.

[SelfHatingPhilosopher]

To this claim: "We don't have meaningful data regarding being shut out."

I respond: Yes, we do.  Meaningful comes in degrees.  It *does* mean something that the top-20 programs admit between three and ten percent of their applicants.  And we can take an educated guess what it means for us.

Ten percent is rather large. On your website you state: "Exactly how selective, I’m not sure. But I’m willing to bet that the average acceptance rate of top philosophy programs is between three and ten percent." The only data point you mention is that NYU says they accept 3% or less. That seems far less meaningful than arbitrary.

Furthermore, as Table said, these aren't independent events. Generally speaking, if you're accepted at one place, you're more likely to get accepted at mulitple places. Each year there are a few power house students that get acceptances to many of the top programs. This makes sense. Generally speaking, if you're not accepted at one place, you're more likely to get not get accepted at other places, because you're rejection from the one program tends to signify a weak application.

Sure, we can make "educated gusses" off of some arbitrary assumptions and baseless use of mathematics, and these gusses may be more meaningful than me pulling a percantage out of thin air, but Table's whole point, I am supposing, is that there's not much actual meaning behind these assertions because, at least with the predications you're making, there's no real data or rigor behind the analysis.

[MattDest]

To this claim: "We don't have meaningful data regarding being shut out."

I respond: Yes, we do.  Meaningful comes in degrees.  It *does* mean something that the top-20 programs admit between three and ten percent of their applicants.  And we can take an educated guess what it means for us.

 

Of course it means *something*, but it's wrong to think that this statistic tells us much about our chances as individuals. We can't do that without knowing more about the pool of applicants that we are competing against (AOIs, competitiveness, overall amount, number of applicants per school), and about what admissions committees are looking for (AOIs, target demographics, the weight each adcom places on various materials). 

[MeonticDodals]

I was shut out twice and now at a top-10. True story.

[wandajune]

I was shut out twice and now at a top-10. True story.

 

What, if anything, did you chance in your application between being shut out and getting in?

[catwoman15]

I think MattDest is right on this matter--sure you can make generalizations like 5% of applicants are accepted on average. But there are far too many variables to determine anything about admissions chances without some serious sensitivity and uncertainty testing...which I'm guessing you didn't complete because there is a lack of available data.

[Hopephily]

I was shut out twice and now at a top-10. True story.

 

 That is some persistence! Glad it paid off. 

[MeonticDodals]

What, if anything, did you chance in your application between being shut out and getting in?

My writing samples kept improving. The last one was incomparably better than the first.

[philosophe]

True, but i applaud ianfaircloud for trying to give us a rough idea.

[Hopephily]

My writing samples kept improving. The last one was incomparably better than the first.

 

Since you're already in a program, out of curiosity, what brings you to these parts? 

[Table]

Respectfully, that's incorrect.  All things considered, what is the average chance of being admitted to a program on your list of schools?  If it's ten percent -- and I think that's not too far off (in my case) -- then you can calculate the chance of being shut out.  The words 'all things considered' matter.

 

I'm surprised that you think the math doesn't tell us something meaningful about our chances.  That's a shocking claim.

 

It's not that I think math in general can't tell us anything meaningful about our chances, it's that I think your math doesn't. I do not find this shocking, since you do not seem to know a great deal about statistics. 

Your calculations do tell us something: a candidate's chance of being shut out if admissions were random (when they're not) and if they were independent (when they're not). Like Matt said, I think this tells us little about our actual individual chances.

 

Surely you agree that if one applies to the top 20 programs in philosophy, even the very strongest candidates likely have not much better than a ten percent average chance of admission.  There's guessing involved here, but one's average chance of admission to each program can be roughly estimated.  I think I'd be a fool to think my chances are much better than ten percent on average.  And if that's the case, then the data is quite meaningful.

 

I don't agree.

Let's look at U. Chicago, since they detail their admissions process so nicely. They admit about 4% of applicants each year. In the first cut, seemingly based primarily on grades, GREs, and letters, the applicant pool is narrowed to 40 candidates. 10 of these 40 are ultimately admitted—so once you're past the first cut, there's a 25% chance you'll get in. 

 

I think it's reasonable for the very strongest candidates to expect to survive the first cut at almost every school they apply to. If we assume every school is just like U. Chicago, that would mean they have a 25% chance of getting in at each school. If we assume independence, that would put the chance of getting shut out if you're one of the strongest candidates at around 6% if you apply to 10 schools and 1.3% if you apply to 15, not 35% and 21%, as you seem to think. That's a huge difference!

This is definitely not to say that you actually have a 6% chance of getting shut out if you're one of the very best applicants and apply to 10 schools. It just shows how dramatically these numbers can change if we seemingly reasonably change our assumptions.