Rankings: How Important Are They?

[ComeBackZinc]

One thing I like about the study I posted is that it lays out the situation in political science in terms that speak to what both sides are saying here.

 

"The top 11 institutions were collectively responsible for the doctoral education of about half of those in tenured or tenure-track positions at the 116 universities."

 

I can't say that English has those exact numbers or anything close to it. But you see the broader point: you can choose to look at it as "11 programs get half the jobs." Or you can look at it as "half the jobs don't go to the most prestigious programs." Both are correct, and if you really truly believe you can be among that portion that doesn't come from the top programs, go for it. But go for it knowing that your odds would be much better if you were in one of those 11. 

[CommPhD20]

Unfortunately, MLA's last study covered things right up until the economic downturn. At that point, about 50% of Lit PhD grads were on TT by 2-3 years later. http://www.mla.org/pdf/survey_phdplacement_0607.pdf

 

For 2007-08, there were 1,876 job postings in English. For 2008-09, that dropped like a rock to 1,100 and the portion of those that were TT dropped considerably as well. Those recovered slightly in the following years, but most recently dropped down to 1,142 (TT portion of that number has improved, but not to pre-recession levels). 2007-08 had 1,224 TT job postings. In 2009-10, 628. This past year was 713.

http://www.mla.org/pdf/rptjil12_13web.pdf

 

Also troubling, the PhD issuance market has hardly reacted to this tremendous change in the job market. You see a tiny dip at first and it quickly recovers as schools need the cheap labor. http://www.mla.org/pdf/sed_report_2010.pdf

 

So we're looking at the number of available jobs coming dangerously close to being cut in half and remains that way over several years (hasn't yet done much recovery at all) while PhD production remains steady. When things were "good," you had just over half of literature PhDs finding TT positions. Now you had the jobs cut nearly in half without a correction to the supply over those same several years. How few of this year's PhD recipients will find positions? 30%? Worse? Even worse, the real fly-by-night programs aren't responding to these surveys.