Red Flag for POI

[alt_with_a_question]

Presently, I am deciding between two PhD programs in the humanities and want an academic career. The options are:

School A is a top ten program in the field with a very respectable placement rate. My potential advisor here is highly respected and, in the broad swath of his research interests, includes most of my favorite topics. But on the visit weekend, this advisor, because of a squabble with his colleagues over who was and was not on the admissions committee, declined to meet with any of the visiting students. I have heard that this advisor is a very kind person who cares about his students and, when I briefly met him last year, had that impression of him. I emailed him recently, and he was friendly over email and said that he has no plans to leave the department. But it's hard to shake the fact that he didn't bother meeting with me after I flew halfway across the country, and it seems like quite a red flag. The other professors would be interesting to take classes with and could be on my committee, but none would work as an advisor.

School B is a good school but on the border of top ten and not top ten. Its placement rate is 50%, 20% lower than school A, which worries me quite a bit. There is also no one individual there who is as good a fit for me as the advisor at A. But there are several professors who share my interests, and between them I feel like the fit is quite good. 

If the visit weekend at A had gone differently, the decision would have been obvious. But I am having a great deal of trouble deciding how much weight to accord such a red flag. Any input from those who are more experienced with grad school would be greatly welcome.

 

Edited April 1, 2016 by alt_with_a_question

[KaffeeCafe]

1 hour ago, alt_with_a_question said:

Presently, I am deciding between two PhD programs in the humanities and want an academic career. The options are:

School A is a top ten program in the field with a very respectable placement rate. My potential advisor here is highly respected and, in the broad swath of his research interests, includes most of my favorite topics. But on the visit weekend, this advisor, because of a squabble with his colleagues over who was and was not on the admissions committee, declined to meet with any of the visiting students. I have heard that this advisor is a very kind person who cares about his students and, when I briefly met him last year, had that impression of him. I emailed him recently, and he was friendly over email and said that he has no plans to leave the department. But it's hard to shake the fact that he didn't bother meeting with me after I flew halfway across the country, and it seems like quite a red flag. The other professors would be interesting to take classes with and could be on my committee, but none would work as an advisor.

School B is a good school but on the border of top ten and not top ten. Its placement rate is 50%, 20% lower than school A, which worries me quite a bit. There is also no one individual there who is as good a fit for me as the advisor at A. But there are several professors who share my interests, and between them I feel like the fit is quite good. 

If the visit weekend at A had gone differently, the decision would have been obvious. But I am having a great deal of trouble deciding how much weight to accord such a red flag. Any input from those who are more experienced with grad school would be greatly welcome.

 

Not sure what field you are in or what is common -- but I wouldn't go somewhere only for one PI, unless everything was perfect and you had near certainty you would be able to work with them (and certain you'd get along). Besides the visit weekend, has your communications prior indicated he has a spot for you? School B, with multiple professors in a general interest could be good. Most people would agree that your interests don't have to overlap 100% (after all they could/may change), but having a supportive and good mentor fit is the most important provided the fit is good enough to motivate you. Good luck!

[alt_with_a_question]

1 hour ago, KaffeeCafe said:

Not sure what field you are in or what is common -- but I wouldn't go somewhere only for one PI, unless everything was perfect and you had near certainty you would be able to work with them (and certain you'd get along). Besides the visit weekend, has your communications prior indicated he has a spot for you? School B, with multiple professors in a general interest could be good. Most people would agree that your interests don't have to overlap 100% (after all they could/may change), but having a supportive and good mentor fit is the most important provided the fit is good enough to motivate you. Good luck!

That makes sense, though most of the programs I have looked at have only had one or maybe two faculty I could see as an advisor. School B is the only one to have three, which definitely is a point in their favor. 

[eternallyephemeral]

Even if this red flag POI is good and everything seems fine, it's still possible that being supervised by someone that other professors do not get along with can cause some problems. My supervisor has some issues with space and priority for resources because he is retired, and the department likes to throw all the retired professors together and give them very little space, even though they still have grants, labs, etc. I'm not saying this is exactly what will happen with you, but a school that has multiple people in your area might allow you to circumvent any issues.

Also, when you mention the placement rate, is that for 6 months? Is it for any job at all? Or tenure-track jobs? There's a lot that the placement rate won't tell you, unless you know the stats behind it. As important as it is to know the placement rate, it's more important to see where people go after the program and if you would be interested in those positions.

[MathCat]

I don't think you should weigh general placement rates too heavily without knowing details. I would look more closely at what your potential PI's students go on to do.

I do think refusing to meet with students is a red flag. But I want to clarify - did you request to meet with him and were denied, or did he simply not take the initiative to set up a meeting? If it is the first case, I would be wary of working with him. I would wonder about getting stuck in the middle of his squabbles with the rest of the department, or being used as a pawn or leverage somehow. 

[alt_with_a_question]

Thanks for responding everyone. The placement rate is lifetime and for tenure track jobs. University A, and the advisor there, place both more frequently and in higher level institutions. 

8 hours ago, MathCat said:

I do think refusing to meet with students is a red flag. But I want to clarify - did you request to meet with him and were denied, or did he simply not take the initiative to set up a meeting? If it is the first case, I would be wary of working with him. I would wonder about getting stuck in the middle of his squabbles with the rest of the department, or being used as a pawn or leverage somehow. 

I requested to meet with him and was denied.

[KaffeeCafe]

1 hour ago, alt_with_a_question said:

Thanks for responding everyone. The placement rate is lifetime and for tenure track jobs. University A, and the advisor there, place both more frequently and in higher level institutions. 

I requested to meet with him and was denied.

Keep in mind the placement rate / prestige of the institution won't carry much weight if you yourself can't do the work to back it up (i.e. don't have good advisor fit / support). Again, not sure about your field -- but you need to think where you can do your best work, not assuming that the better school will certainly mean better prospects for you.

Edited April 2, 2016 by KaffeeCafe

[displayname]

On 4/1/2016 at 5:53 PM, alt_with_a_question said:

I have heard that this advisor is a very kind person who cares about his students and, when I briefly met him last year, had that impression of him.

This is very important.  If I could give advice to every admitted student, it would be 1) conduct one-on-one conversations, outside of Visit Day, with multiple students and former students of your adviser/field (so as to get a sense of your committee). Ideally, these students would be advanced, because they'll be able to tell you about life after coursework, when advising, funding, etc. is most critical. 2) know placement rates for your adviser & field within the department (assuming you want a TT job. I would also advise to ask about support for alternative careers, but that's another matter).   You seem to know about 2, but 1 is equally important. If you can confirm with multiple students that a professor is very, even exceptionally, dedicated to students, and kind, I'd say you have a great and rare adviser on your hands.  It's true that the adviser isn't everything. However, it is also true that the lack of a dedicated mentor can jeopardize your training, happiness, and career. Track down more students and try to figure out if this is just about department politics. If it is, ignore it.  If its a sign of general difficulty that impacts her advising, you have another matter on your hands.

FWIW, two of the faculty at my top-ranked department have issues with departmental admissions right now. This is largely because they (understandably) think fewer PhDs should be admitted due to declining job numbers.  They have both stopped actively recruiting for this reason. But, they are hands-down the most supportive people on our faculty when it comes to grad students. Sometimes the faculty that have spats with other faculty are the ones that advocate for their students the most.

[fuzzylogician]

Any chance to set up a Skype meeting with this POI? There is politics that may be worrisome, but it's worth actually taking the time to figure out if you get along with the person. It's too bad that you didn't get to do this while you were there, but you should try again. That said, I think that going to a school where there is just one person who is a good fit is dangerous for a variety of reasons, even if there was no conflict at all. And you should take general placement rates with a huge grain of salt; what really matters is what happens to your potential advisor's students and more generally how things are looking in your subfield. 

[MathCat]

10 hours ago, displayname said:

FWIW, two of the faculty at my top-ranked department have issues with departmental admissions right now. This is largely because they (understandably) think fewer PhDs should be admitted due to declining job numbers.  They have both stopped actively recruiting for this reason. But, they are hands-down the most supportive people on our faculty when it comes to grad students. Sometimes the faculty that have spats with other faculty are the ones that advocate for their students the most.

Not actively recruiting is one thing, but declining to meet with an interested student who requested to is different, and I think far more worrisome. It would make me question just how much they advocate for their students.

[alt_with_a_question]

@display name, thank you for your advice on advisors. I think I am fortunate in that my potential advisors at both institutions have been spoken very highly of by their present students, both those starting their degrees and those on the threshold of completion. That being said, the placement rate of the POI at university A not only matches but possibly even exceeds the department's already impressive baseline: his students have not only generally performed well, so far as I can see, but have even at times landed positions at top ten institutions. 

There is also something of a development: I have finally gotten to speak to one of the professors at my home institution, the sort of grizzled academic veteran who at this point seems to know everything about the field and everyone in it. Considering the differences in prestige and placement rate, and his high opinion of the POI's work, he advised going to department A if it was at all functional—toward which end he helpfully offered to email the relevant faculty, as he knows them decently well, and see if he can figure out what is going on. So I hope to have some more definite answers soon.

Also, I should have made clear earlier that I am first on the wait list of school A rather than admitted; school B, by contrast, is my top choice of the ones I have thus far been admitted to. I posted the topic now, however, because if the wait list response comes on the fifteenth itself, as seems possible, I would like to already know how I want to respond. Your suggestion of a Skype meeting, @fuzzylogician, is a good one, but one that I am hesitant to do unless admitted. Though I suppose that, between my own email and now my professor's, I have been taking up a fair bit of the POI's time already and should perhaps just go for it. I have actually met the fellow once before, though, when he gave a talk at my school. We got along well then.

[fuzzylogician]

You don't need to worry about the professor's time. Worry about making the right decision. It can easily take a week to schedule a meeting, and if you think you will seriously consider this school if you get off the waitlist, you need to act now to collect all the information you need to make your decision. If following the incident you have decided not to attend this school, that's a perfectly legitimate choice, but in that case you should let them know and maybe someone else can come off the waitlist instead of you. Otherwise, I assume your previous meeting with this POI when he was visiting your school didn't discuss issues like advising style, potential research projects, students placement records, etc. You need to have a conversation with this person as his potential student at least once before you accept an offer from his school. 

[KaffeeCafe]

50 minutes ago, alt_with_a_question said:

@display name, thank you for your advice on advisors. I think I am fortunate in that my potential advisors at both institutions have been spoken very highly of by their present students, both those starting their degrees and those on the threshold of completion. That being said, the placement rate of the POI at university A not only matches but possibly even exceeds the department's already impressive baseline: his students have not only generally performed well, so far as I can see, but have even at times landed positions at top ten institutions. 

There is also something of a development: I have finally gotten to speak to one of the professors at my home institution, the sort of grizzled academic veteran who at this point seems to know everything about the field and everyone in it. Considering the differences in prestige and placement rate, and his high opinion of the POI's work, he advised going to department A if it was at all functional—toward which end he helpfully offered to email the relevant faculty, as he knows them decently well, and see if he can figure out what is going on. So I hope to have some more definite answers soon.

Also, I should have made clear earlier that I am first on the wait list of school A rather than admitted; school B, by contrast, is my top choice of the ones I have thus far been admitted to. I posted the topic now, however, because if the wait list response comes on the fifteenth itself, as seems possible, I would like to already know how I want to respond. Your suggestion of a Skype meeting, @fuzzylogician, is a good one, but one that I am hesitant to do unless admitted. Though I suppose that, between my own email and now my professor's, I have been taking up a fair bit of the POI's time already and should perhaps just go for it. I have actually met the fellow once before, though, when he gave a talk at my school. We got along well then.

Sorry -- I'm confused. You went to the visitation weekend while waitlisted, or was the visitation weekend for interviews and you were waitlisted after ? Even if you are admitted, I think you need to secure a positive response from him before committing. 

[alt_with_a_question]

7 minutes ago, fuzzylogician said:

You don't need to worry about the professor's time. Worry about making the right decision. It can easily take a week to schedule a meeting, and if you think you will seriously consider this school if you get off the waitlist, you need to act now to collect all the information you need to make your decision. If following the incident you have decided not to attend this school, that's a perfectly legitimate choice, but in that case you should let them know and maybe someone else can come off the waitlist instead of you. Otherwise, I assume your previous meeting with this POI when he was visiting your school didn't discuss issues like advising style, potential research projects, students placement records, etc. You need to have a conversation with this person as his potential student at least once before you accept an offer from his school. 

That makes sense. I guess it would be silly to try and schedule a Skype session if I got off the waitlist on the fifteenth, as it would be such short notice. I'll get in touch with him about it.

6 minutes ago, KaffeeCafe said:

Sorry -- I'm confused. You went to the visitation weekend while waitlisted, or was the visitation weekend for interviews and you were waitlisted after ? Even if you are admitted, I think you need to secure a positive response from him before committing. 

The visit weekend was for the short list candidates; I was wait listed after it. 

[TakeruK]

Personally, I feel this is a big red flag. The professor chose to not meet with any visiting students because of a disagreement with another faculty member. But who does this decision hurt? The visiting students! I would be concerned that a professor is willing to act in a way against the interests of potential students because of a disagreement with another faculty member. 

I mean, it's hard to say for certain without the full story. Maybe the professor isn't actively recruiting as MathCat says, and feels like he doesn't need to meet with any potential students because he doesn't want/need any right now. That would not reflect poorly on the professor, but it's still a concern to you.

Hopefully you are able to speak with the professor soon on Skype and find out whether or not you would want to work with this person, if you get off the waitlist! 

[displayname]

1 hour ago, MathCat said:

Not actively recruiting is one thing, but declining to meet with an interested student who requested to is different, and I think far more worrisome. It would make me question just how much they advocate for their students.

MathCat, you're right.  My thinking on this also has changed a bit knowing that the OP was waitlisted, that the visit day was for short-listed candidates vs. admits, and that the OP's meeting with the POI was at a talk and not a one-on-one about OP's research (some prospectives get in touch with POIs about their applications in advance). 

I guess I was allowing some wiggle room, for this reason: Visit Days can be a charade. Professors often go out of their way to be really kind and attentive to students, which is great, but not necessarily representative of their actual relationships with advisees. I tend to think that the romance of the Visit Days skews the picture for admits. After all, for departments, the event is about recruitment.  Some grads and professors do have the best interest of the admits in mind, and place that first. But many (I'd say most) are trying to convince you to come. So, a professor that stays away from the event but has already gotten to know an admit and had personal contact with her about her research would not bother me that much. Especially if that professor's students think she's great, and her placement rates were exceptionally high.

Still, fuzzylogician is also right -- it's risky to enter a department where you can only feasibly work with one person, especially if there's any risk that the person will leave. I'd say, if any prof is a flight risk, its a top prof at a top school with great placement that doesn't get along with her colleagues.  Also remember, though, that advisers needn't be those with 100% research overlap. It can be someone whose work is close enough and who you get along with wonderfully.

Finally -- I'd say the advice to disregard general placement rate is spot-on.  The placement that matters is your adviser's, and even then its hard to project forward onto your future. I'd say: first, get in touch with the adviser and get a sense for who they are. Maybe re-contact some of their students and ask about this issue in particular, or whether her departmental conflicts have been a problem for the students.  Only compare placement rates between prospective advisers and (maybe) among students in your field in both departments. 

One last question -- how did you get along with the profs at school B? You say that they are in your general area of interest. Did you feel like you could trust them?  That's most important.

[alt_with_a_question]

37 minutes ago, displayname said:

Still, fuzzylogician is also right -- it's risky to enter a department where you can only feasibly work with one person, especially if there's any risk that the person will leave. I'd say, if any prof is a flight risk, its a top prof at a top school with great placement that doesn't get along with her colleagues.  Also remember, though, that advisers needn't be those with 100% research overlap. It can be someone whose work is close enough and who you get along with wonderfully.

Finally -- I'd say the advice to disregard general placement rate is spot-on.  The placement that matters is your adviser's, and even then its hard to project forward onto your future. I'd say: first, get in touch with the adviser and get a sense for who they are. Maybe re-contact some of their students and ask about this issue in particular, or whether her departmental conflicts have been a problem for the students.  Only compare placement rates between prospective advisers and (maybe) among students in your field in both departments. 

One last question -- how did you get along with the profs at school B? You say that they are in your general area of interest. Did you feel like you could trust them?  That's most important.

Not requiring a 100% overlap makes sense, though I unfortunately still don't think that anyone else at school A would qualify. They are planning to hire a new person in my subfield to replace a retiree, but the person won't be in place till the year after next, and I obviously have no idea who it will be or how their interests will fit in with mine. Your point about a flight risk definitely makes sense, though in his email to me he said that he had no plans to leave. 

Disregarding the general placement rate makes sense. I do then worry that the numbers then become so small that the predictive value falls off. Still, viewed that way one of the two main potential advisors has placed 2/4 students in a tenure track position, the other has done 4/5, though that prof might be near retiring. If he does retire, though, it would be less of a disaster than if the school A prof left, as I would still have the other school B prof to work with. 

The two most advisor-likely profs at school B both impressed me. It's hard to know too much from just a twenty minute meeting, but I have since been in contact with a few students from B who work with those professors and have been told that they are good to work with. One of the professors has also been emailing me in a pretty clear attempt at recruitment but has also provided some admirably frank opinions about another school I was visiting (frank in a positive, "it's a place worth considering, and here are some ways that they differ from us that could, depending on what you want, push you in either direction" type way) that makes me think he lives up to his self-description as a "straight shooter." If I don't get into A, I think I'll be happy going into B. It's turning down the placement and POI at A if I do get an offer that would be a hard call.

Talking to the present students is a good idea.

56 minutes ago, TakeruK said:

Personally, I feel this is a big red flag. The professor chose to not meet with any visiting students because of a disagreement with another faculty member. But who does this decision hurt? The visiting students! I would be concerned that a professor is willing to act in a way against the interests of potential students because of a disagreement with another faculty member. 

I know! For all I know his anger against his colleagues is perfectly justified, but his actions seem to hurt the potential students a lot more than his colleagues. 

[displayname]

10 hours ago, alt_with_a_question said:

Still, viewed that way one of the two main potential advisors has placed 2/4 students in a tenure track position, the other has done 4/5, though that prof might be near retiring.

If these are the B school choices, I'd say you're in good hands. Placing 4/5 is pretty phenomenal in most humanities fields. Even if this guy does retire while you're there, you might be able to work as his advisee. Retired profs can be primary advisers at my institution, and sometimes its ideal--they have few other responsibilities, an established name, and don't engage in the day-to-day politics of academia.  Can the prof at School A really have much better than 80% placement?  Even so, I'd say you'll be just fine at School B!

[alt_with_a_question]

My professor here got a response from the school A POI: there aren't too many details, but the POI did say that he thinks a lot of the tension came from a specific appointment this year and will dissipate after that. Hopefully so, though I will still try and Skype with him. 

21 hours ago, displayname said:

If these are the B school choices, I'd say you're in good hands. Placing 4/5 is pretty phenomenal in most humanities fields. Even if this guy does retire while you're there, you might be able to work as his advisee. Retired profs can be primary advisers at my institution, and sometimes its ideal--they have few other responsibilities, an established name, and don't engage in the day-to-day politics of academia.  Can the prof at School A really have much better than 80% placement?  Even so, I'd say you'll be just fine at School B!

That is definitely good to hear. It makes sense that, considering he has already said he would be willing to work with me, even if he does retire, he probably won't vanish in a puff of smoke.

[displayname]

That's academia for you!  One other thing. You mentioned:

On 4/3/2016 at 11:12 PM, alt_with_a_question said:

They are planning to hire a new person in my subfield to replace a retiree, but the person won't be in place till the year after next, and I obviously have no idea who it will be or how their interests will fit in with mine

Of course, you don't know who it is, which is a gamble. But, I'd say it's less risky.  If the search is already scheduled for next year, it will probably go through. Having a new person come in your second year isn't really a problem - you still have time to take courses with them before your quals, and plenty of time to develop a relationship before starting your dissertation.  But, it sounds like you have a great option with B and a possibly good option with A, if it comes through.

[TakeruK]

14 minutes ago, displayname said:

That's academia for you!  One other thing. You mentioned:

Of course, you don't know who it is, which is a gamble. But, I'd say it's less risky.  If the search is already scheduled for next year, it will probably go through. Having a new person come in your second year isn't really a problem - you still have time to take courses with them before your quals, and plenty of time to develop a relationship before starting your dissertation.  But, it sounds like you have a great option with B and a possibly good option with A, if it comes through.

With the usual caveat that things may vary from field to field and department to department, my advice is actually to not count on this search/hire going through and you should not count on having this person around to play a significant role in advising you. It may work out and that would be super awesome, and it's useful to know that there are plans to keep the department faculty roster at approximately the same size but I would not consider this person as a potential advisor/committee member at this time when making the final decision on where to go.

Here are some reasons:

1. Usually, a new professorship appointment is approved at a level higher than the department level and your department may be one of many departments competing for a new hire budget. Scheduling a search is not the same as getting an opening and the department may later choose to trade/give up this spot for some other advantage. Or, things outside of the department's control (e.g. budget changes) may result in the search or hire not working out.

2. The search might not result in a hire. Not every search results in success. Because spots are so limited, most departments may not make an offer if there is no one that they like enough. Or, they might only be interested in 1 or 2 people and those 2 people might take an offer elsewhere. It's also common practice for people to apply for positions, get an offer, and use it to renegotiate a better offer at their current institution, with no intention of taking the position they applied for unless their current institution cannot or does not give them what they want. If this happens, the department may choose to try again next year instead of hiring a candidate lower down on their list.

3. Job search/hire timescales can be long, especially compared to grad student timescales. The search and job negotiation process could take up to an (academic) year, especially since, like grad applications, it works in cycles and people will wait to hear from their other applications before accepting offers. Negotiation the final details could take months and then if it doesn't work out, the school's second choice may already have taken an offer elsewhere. Also, once an offer is finalized, the new hire's start date may be 1 or 2 years away. In my field, many new hires are currently postdocs with prestigious postdoc fellowships and most people want to finish up these fellowships before starting a faculty job.

With all of this in mind, I would not count a new addition to the department until there is an announced start date! When I visited grad programs, they would tell me about any new hires they planned to make in a few years but they also advised me, for the same reason, to not count on them in making my own decision.

[MathCat]

Another reason to add to TakeruK's list: sometimes newly appointed professors don't take students for the first few years. I don't know how widespread this is, but one program I was accepted to had told me a fantastic new assistant professor (already an established name) would be starting at the same time I would matriculate. However, he would not be advising students during the first two years because of some university policies, making him not a viable advisor for me anyway. Now, you don't always need to pick an advisor in your first or even second year, depending on field, but if they haven't even started the search, a situation with the new hire not immediately taking students would likely take them out of the running as potential advisors, due to the delays TakeruK has mentioned (and that's even assuming they do hire somebody!).

[displayname]

TakeRuk and MathCat both make good points. I certainly wouldn't decide to go to School A being dependent on the new hire. Most of the searches my department (humanities) have conducted have gone through though the schedule can, sometimes, be long. I think this might be different in the sciences. (There are very few postdocs in humanities). But, I'd second TakeRuk's advice to be skeptical until a start date is announced; I shouldn't have been so optimistic about the search working. With that in mind, a number of students in my dept were 3rd or 4th years when their would-be adviser was hired.  So, the fact that a potential new prof might come in during your second year isn't really the problem, it's whether they come at all.  If they do, I wouldn't worry about not working with them.  MathCat -- I've never heard of the no-taking-new students at the beginning in my humanities program. If anything, its the opposite -- new hires often take more students, because they want to mentor, because it looks good for tenure requirements, and because they are filling a trendy/needy field.

 

 

[alt_with_a_question]

I'd never considered most of those factors about a new hire, but they make a lot of sense. Looking back, the new hire I saw up close as a student member of the search committee did indeed delay his start date by a year. For me the new hire at school A would mostly be a bonus—or, I guess, an escape hatch if things blow up spectacularly with the initial POI. But that POI is the main reason why, even despite the issues, school A remains in consideration, so if I do go I would definitely do what I could to work with him. 

[juilletmercredi]

With that in mind, a number of students in my dept were 3rd or 4th years when their would-be adviser was hired. So, the fact that a potential new prof might come in during your second year isn't really the problem, it's whether they come at all.  If they do, I wouldn't worry about not working with them.  MathCat -- I've never heard of the no-taking-new students at the beginning in my humanities program. If anything, its the opposite -- new hires often take more students, because they want to mentor, because it looks good for tenure requirements, and because they are filling a trendy/needy field.

Meh, it varies from school to school. First of all, as others have pointed out, programs vary in whether they want or allow new professors to take on students. Second of all, professors themselves vary on whether they actually want to mentor. Even if they want to, mentoring a doctoral student is VERY time-consuming, and if tenure is difficult at the university the new professor may want the first 1-2 years to put some extra work in on the book manuscript and get the preps down for the classes they are teaching. I would not say that new hires take more students; in my experience, it is the mid-career professors who tend to have the most students (aka tenured associates and early full professors).

That said, I agree with the above advice. Contact this professor, mention that you were disappointed that you didn't get to meet with him during visit day but you'd like the opportunity to chat with him about his work and the program as a prospective student before you make a final decision. Only after you talk to the POI do I feel you can really make a decision.