Drop in Graduate School Applications

[VAZ]

As you have heard, graduate school applications have been decreasing in number every year in all arts and humanities disciplines. I just looked at some history programs with open statistics and saw a significant drop of PhD applicants in the last three years (20%-40%) (Michigan seems to be an outlier). Is this happening in all schools, and will the number keep going down? what would you predict for the 2018 cycle?

[hungrybear]

All the schools I am applying to have seen a drop. 

I think this trend is a result of the economy getting better. There are more opportunities for recent graduates who would have otherwise turned to graduate school for opportunities. As the economy is still getting better, I can only imagine that the trend will continue. 

 

Edited August 7, 2017 by miami421

[nhhistorynut]

The school I am going to said the drop between the 2016 and 2017 cycles was almost 50% and the DGS said he wasn't entirely sure why. That said, I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing, because the issue we've seen in the discipline in recent decades is that more PhDs are being awarded than jobs being created for PhDs. So perhaps the lower number of applicants will mean the system is starting to even out? Or maybe I'm just being hopeful lol.

[lordtiandao]

Maybe if there is less competition the chance of acceptance is higher?

[Sigaba]

Do the best that you can with all aspects of your applications.

Ultimately, you're competing against your own potential as a professional academic historian.

[dr. t]

[cowgirlsdontcry]

Even if applications drop by 50% in the humanities, there is still a huge disparity between applicants and acceptances. The acceptance numbers are also dropping. When I was an undergrad and just beginning to look at English programs, PhD acceptances were in the 10-12 per year range, with approximately 200-300 applicants. Now some universities are accepting 4-5 per year and even if there is a 50% drop, that's still 100-150 applicants for 5 positions and an approximate acceptance rate of 3-5%. More than likely the drop in applicants isn't quite 50%, which makes the numbers even more abysmal.

[Glasperlenspieler]

1 hour ago, cowgirlsdontcry said:

Even if applications drop by 50% in the humanities, there is still a huge disparity between applicants and acceptances. The acceptance numbers are also dropping. When I was an undergrad and just beginning to look at English programs, PhD acceptances were in the 10-12 per year range, with approximately 200-300 applicants. Now some universities are accepting 4-5 per year and even if there is a 50% drop, that's still 100-150 applicants for 5 positions and an approximate acceptance rate of 3-5%. More than likely the drop in applicants isn't quite 50%, which makes the numbers even more abysmal.

Which is probably good news for the profession even if it sucks for individual applicants.

[TMP]

When I first started applying to PhD programs in 2008 and 2010, the competition was unbelievable intense.  Programs were seeing record number of applications but trying to hold their cohort sizes steady.  They were also trying to cut back the number of acceptances in the light of financial and budgetary crises.  But as soon as the economy recovered around 2012, the applications dropped, leaving the programs a chance to breathe a little easier in saying, "Okay, we don't have to feel so guilty about cutting down the number of PhD students in order to right the system."  Meanwhile, professors are telling potential applicants and the boom of blogs (including The Professor Is In and Rebecca Shuman) have raised awareness of the dire chances of landing an academic job.  It strikes me that a lot of students coming from undergrad these days have their eyes on practicality as a result of the 2008 market crash and heavy student loans.

But competition for slots in PhD programs is still quite intense.  Jobs will be another beast to battle.

[cowgirlsdontcry]

1 hour ago, Glasperlenspieler said:

Which is probably good news for the profession even if it sucks for individual applicants.

It does mean the market won't be nearly as flooded with PhDs who cannot get a TT job. I have outside income, so if I can get a permanent instructor job or a job at a smaller state university, I will be happy teaching upper level American literature.

[psstein]

Applications may be down, but anecdotally speaking, 2017 was a very rough year for history applications. I think Stanford took a smaller than usual cohort, and I think Columbia had it's smallest in several years.