AWA Grading help

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Question 

e following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

My argument essay. This is my first attempt to write an arguement essay. ( It's been a while) 

The argument states that the company will be profited by starting to manufacture the alpaca overcoat. This is based on the premises that, a 5 year stop in production would have increased the market demand. Moreover, the recent surge in clothing price and no competitor manufacturing the same coat, adds to favor of the manufacturer. However, on careful examination, the argument is found to be baseless and is rife with assumptions.

First, a generalization is made by assuming the same market scenario in the present and 5 years back. There could have been a lot of changes in the market. The advent of new low cost materials could have deteriorated the market for woolen products.Therefore the above mentioned assumption of generalization doesn’t correlate with the author’s prediction of getting higher profits.

Second, sufficient proof is not showcased regarding the capability of the new supplier of wool. Assuming a case of increase in demand, if the supplier is not able to cope up it will lead to backlog in availability. It can lead to dissatisfied customers who may seek competitor products. In such a case the company would lose on its customer bank and this can give way to loss of market share.

The author mentions about the recent surge in the price of clothes. But he fails to provide by magnitude with which the price has increased. There is no mention regarding the increase in price with respect to woolen clothes. There could be possiblity of increase in prices for cotton clothes whereas the price of wollen products might have decreased. In such a scenario the company would plunge into a loss rather gain any profit.

Finally, the author fails to take into consideration the manufacturing price of the jacket. If the cost price of the jacket is steep then it would difficult for the manufacturer to sell the product in the market. This may lead to increase in iventory leading to loss for the organization.

In summary, the argument fails to prove solid ground, given that there are compelling arguments against the authors claim.