lol. the opposite is what i experienced. my top choice has sent out admits already for people who applied early(i did). so anyway, i actually called them to ask about the deadline for a fellowship, and was informed that in fact the department had sent out admits since last week.
it turns out that they didn't get one of my LORs. weird!! i fixed it immediately and life is good.
well, still wondering what my opposite experience was? well, nobody has posted an admit in the results page for my this school. so i had an epiphany: gradcafe is not representative of the general grad school applicant pool.