Nope, but the anecdotes I've heard make it sound like it's a decent chance. I'd guess that we Japanese alternates have a bit of a hard time, since there is only one program in Japan, but don't give up yet!
A poll on the Facebook applicants group showed no more than 6 known alternates in any program so far, and program alumni say that they saw a decent number of applicants in their classes. Some got their notifications as late as May... I don't know if I can play chicken for that long, but if I get an email then I will definitely see what I can do.