PolPhil

Yes, odds are extremely like that all of the acceptances and waitlists have gone out. The vast majority of programs release all decisions on the same day (though they may release different kinds of decisions on different days)

I'm sure that they all read the SOP first. That doesnt mean that the SOP plays a large role in the decision

Absolutely. Acceptance rates will be around 1-2% at top programs this year due to increased applications and fewer admissions, so, more than ever, it's a lottery. Good luck!

Admissions committees typically don't pay too much attention to statements of purpose, other than to get a sense of your interests. I wouldn't think too much about that. It's really all about the writing sample and letters of recommendation.

Someone on the FB group already has. She also mentioned that the Faculty mentioned that this was an early acceptance (probably a fellowship acceptance or something) Edit: it is a regular phil acceptance, not HPS

Tbh Berkeley was tied as my worst fit, and I'd almost be relieved to get my first rejection out of the way haha

You're probably right, but at the same time it's only been a couple of hours and only 1 person has posted. There may (hopefully) be more acceptances!

I feel you. I've also had trouble getting in contact with Diana Volkar

I doubt that they will reach out for a missing letter. From their perspective, it's up to you to check and make sure that everything has been submitted. In full fairness, can you really expect them to personally correspond with ~300 applicants to make sure that all of the components are there? There's usually just one admissions coordinator (at Pitt it's Diana Volkar). They will often contact you if there is trouble with a component that you have included, but it's rarer for them to contact you for a missing component. Edit: if it was a problem with their application system, contact them, and they'll probably cut you as much slack as they can (though it might be too late)

It's important to remember that these are just predictions. The departments have their own agendas. They could release a month and a half later than in a previous year if that's what fits their priorities.

That's not true. Trust me, I've done a lot of grad school in Canada. The norm is the same.

It's the same practice in Canada and the UK (and, as far as I know, in most places). Yes, they have a good reason. You need to provide some measure of protection for letter writers. They need to be able to speak honestly, without fear of angry students coming at them because they didn't talk them up enough.

I'm not sure that I agree that it's inane. They have to, by law, offer you the option to look at your letter. But I do believe that there is good reason for faculty and admissions committees to fully keep the letters out of the hands of students. Frankly, it's on you for not having checked.

Yes, this is generally considered to be detrimental to your prospects. I think the idea is that the reader will be more likely to discount the letter (of course, it may be a matter of degree)

The predictions are based on aggregated data from previous years

I mean, it's a random add-on to the application system that they probably don't update regularly vs direct communication from the admissions coordinator. I hope you're right, but I'm not making any bets

The only reason that I disagree with moving away from overall rankings is that most graduate students shift interests over the course of a PhD, so it's usually a good idea to go to a program that is strong overall vs a program that is only strong in your particular area

Entirely possible! I'm just speculating

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but here's my counter-thought: Most of the people getting accepted this year are the same people that would usually get accepted. These people also are less likely to apply to a bunch of random programs, because they probably only have their sights set on the ~12-15 programs in the top 20 where they have a decent fit. Therefore, the increase in applications will have little to no affect on this group or most admission slots at these top 20 programs. For the "marginal" acceptees, and as you move out of the top 20 there are more and more marginal acceptees in the total set of acceptees, the increase in applications will make things more difficult. Being marginal among a larger set of marginal applicants means that your acceptance would, even in a normal year, be luck of the draw. Given a larger set of marginal applicants, these odds go down. But even in a normal year, the waitlist is replete with only marginal applicants. That's the reality of philosophy applications, with such a large pool of qualified applicants and so few admissions slots. This all means that this year it will be more difficult to even get on the waitlist, but once you're already on the waitlist, the odds are roughly the same, since you're among a pool of marginal applicants equivalent to the pool among which you would have been in a normal year. Like I said, this might be different once you start getting outside of the top 20 and more of the initial admissions slots are going to marginal applicants, since you can expect more "shuffling" at those programs.

I don't think so. What's your thought?

Makes sense with the increase of applicants

Another random update. It came to light in an email correspondence that Princeton is aiming for mid to late March.

Random update, but it came up during an email correspondence that U Mich is in nearing the final cut. I can only assume that that means that we should expect responses in the next 2-3 weeks.

hahaha yes, I did do better than 7th percentile ?

Actually, the odds are a bit worse than that because many of the same students will be accepted at more than a few programs. So, even if all programs have an acceptance rate of 5% (say, 10/200 students) but aim for a class of 5 students, you apply to 20 programs, and there are 400 students applying to those programs, your odds of getting in can be as low as 25%. Obviously the numbers aren't quite as straightforward as that, since there are more students applying to more programs, sometimes an abnormally high proportion of acceptees matriculate, etc., but the point is that the rate of matriculation is a better indicator of your overall likelihood of acceptance