Muan1

I think this is solid advice, and I like the way you encapsulated the sheer difficulty of getting into a top 10 program (i.e. you have to be among the strongest "15-25 theory students in the world at that point"). I wonder, however, if you are pushing the argument too far. Plenty of students get into top programs not (simply) by virtue of being a good student but also by virtue of having powerful professors with connections across departments willing to bat for them. It's difficult for a strong student who might not be in an ug department known for theory to be able to get this kind of advantage. Therefore I'm not sure it has everything to do with being the "strongest student" out there; rather, like everything else in the "meritocracy," it' a combination of merit, luck, and who-you-know. A question I had was concerning the salutariness of applying to the T30-50. While I am sure these programs are filled with talented students and respectful professors, given the dismal state of affairs of the theory market (even CHYMPS pedigreed applicants have immense trouble finding TT lines after their nth postdoc), how sound is it to go to a program ranked fortieth in expectation of finding a job?

Theory students be reading this like, yeah uhuh.

My tentative understanding is that your GPA/academic performance as a master's student can mitigate a less-than-stellar academic performance as an undergraduate. How substantial, or marginal, the mitigation -- I don't know. But, if this is any hope to you, I had a friend who had a GPA somewhere in the 2's, went to law school for a year or two, then transferred to a terminal master's program, and he ended up going to Michigan for PhD (not going to divulge his field or anything). Point being, that there is hope. Now you really want to have strong letters ready for whenever you make the decision to apply to PhD programs. Hopefully your program is 2 years, instead of one, so you'll be able to form meaningful relationships with professors who have read your work and can assess your suitability for a doctoral program. But I imagine that you'll also have a professor or two who might be able to say something about this too from your undergraduate institution. TLDR: get into a master's, do very well, figure out what you want to study concretely, and apply to programs that you'd be a good fit at accordingly. Nobody's chances are good, and prophesies in this enterprise are meaningless. Do the things you are passionate about and the road will naturally appear before you.

I worry that this year everything is going to be especially predictable. But I very much understand and truly empathize with your anxiety. I wish you all of the best in this application cycle. Even though this stuff is all painfully zero-sum, let's hope for good results for all of us.

My recommendation is to stop stressing about things now: the applications are now out of your control. You've done everything you can. Get off this thread for a bit -- it'll all be fine.

So if it won't automatically disqualify her, why would you bring it up? Seems unnecessary and honestly a bit condescending. OP don't worry about your GRE disqualifying you -- most programs don't even require the GRE this year, and what's more, if there is a cutoff, it would presumably be set around 160...so you're fine.