Ohhhhhh yeah you should definitely shatter that illusion.
I won the award last year (why am I here?) after two years of nothing (no HMs). The things that reviewers tune into are SO WEIRD. One of my reviewers from last year went on and on about how qualified I am because of all the biology techniques I'm trained in... that I haven't used since I was a freshman in college, and which are totally irrelevant to my current research. The other two reviewers' comments were actually germane to my current research, so some of them pay attention.
In the past I had a reviewer suggest that my advisor probably came up with my research proposal. This was for NO REASON. My advisor even told me he included in his LOR that my essays were all my original work (I guess that's something they're supposed to say). Also, the research really was, in reality, very sincerely my own idea AND different from what my advisor normally does. So frustrating to be eliminated because of a reviewer's whim.
I've also read reviews from friends who had reviewers that fell in love with them and wrote long, poetic reviews about how what an inspiring applicant they are. Reviewers are crazy! And they go through these things fast. There's a big luck-of-the-draw dimension here.
So if you get the award: be gentle to your colleagues who didn't! And don't rest too long on your laurels.
And if you don't: Please don't take a GRFP rejection as any kind of statement on your value as a scientist.