Don't trust me, because I'm a first-time applicant as well, but if you've got a couple hundred bucks to spend, I'd say apply anyway. I am having similar feelings even though I've been working really hard on applications. Who knows-- somebody might read your app and see something that really resonates, and that could earn you a spot this year, or at least some constructive feedback if you have to do it all over again. I seriously doubt that if your application is truly awful it will garner enough attention or focus to be remembered a year later. I expect the really bad applications just get glossed over really quickly. Only in our nightmares do ad comms sit around laughing at an application
Good luck! Who knows, right?