How will Covid-19 affect competition for 2021?

[2711383]

At first I thought it would make it softer, given the economic shock that this pandemic is causing. But now I'm realizing that all of admitted students for 2020 will probably want to defer their admission until 2021, raising competition substantially. 

Thoughts?

[PsyDuck90]

It'll probably be worse. When recessions happen and people lose their jobs, there is often a trend of increased grad school applications. Essentially, people think, if I can't find a job with the credentials I have, let me try to get some better credentials. 

[geekusprimus]

In addition to more people applying, there's going to be a lot less money going around for the university, too. Grants will be more competitive, scholarships more scarce, and fully-funded graduate student positions will take a serious hit. Consequently, a lot of STEM programs that basically only expect funded students to attend are going to get a lot harder.

[MtrlHstryGrl]

I got an email from a potential advisor at UMich, and she said that there will be more applicants than usual this year.

[SuzytheExplorer]

I'm just wondering whether or not external-funded students will have a higher chance of getting in for this application cycle. ?

[tundratussocks]

Relative to this topic, I’m seeing mention of departments deferring all 2020 enrollment to the following semester or even following year. Does anyone know if this is a trend?  If so, is it worth contacting departments just to see whether they intend to take on new grad students in 2021 or not?  I understand that this is a natural part of the process when you email POI’s, but at this point I want to know if there’s a more direct and immediate way to get an answer about department-wide, or even university-wide trends. 

Mostly I want to know if this is simply a bust year to invest the time and energy into applying. Sucks to think I have to go into the process not knowing and still somehow muck up the motivation while noticing a lurking doom.  Again, this is naturally par for the course, but this year seems dismal in general. I’m anticipating less funding and more applicants and thus more competition which I’m mentally fine with; I’m less fine with all of the uncertainty because of pandemics and such.

p.s. I know I'm sounding very sorry for myself, my frustration came out a little strong haha.