your NFL playoff predictions

[Guest Gnome Chomsky]

Here are mine: 

 

Round 1

 

AFC

 

# 3 Texans > # 6 Bengals 

 

#5 Colts > #4 Ravens 

 

NFC

 

#3 Packers > #6 Vikings 

 

#5 Seahawks > #4 Redskins 

 

Round 2 

 

AFC 

 

#1 Broncos > #5 Colts (Peyton faces his former team) 

 

#2 Patriots > #3 Texans 

 

NFC 

 

#5 Seahawks > #1 Falcons 

 

#3 Packers > #2 49ers 

 

Round 3 

 

AFC

 

#1 Broncos > #2 Patriots (Peyton vs Brady rivalry continues) 

 

NFC

 

#3 Packers > #5 Seahawks (rematch of the controversial replacement referees game) 

 

Super Bowl 

 

Broncos > Packers (matchup of elite quarterbacks and MVP candidates) 

 

 

 

 

[Faraday]

AFC Wild Card Round

 

# 3 Texans vs. # 6 Bengals

#5 Colts vs. #4 Ravens

 

NFC Wild Card Round

 

#3 Packers vs. #6 Vikings

#5 Seahawks vs. #4 Redskins

 

AFC Divisional Round

 

#1 Broncos vs. #5 Colts

#2 Patriots vs. #3 Texans

 

NFC Divisional Round

 

#6 Vikings vs. #1 Falcons

#5 Seahawks vs. #2 49ers

 

AFC Championship

 

#1 Broncos vs. #2 Patriots

 

NFC Championship

 

#1 Falcons vs. #2 49ers

 

Super Bowl

 

Broncos vs. 49ers

 

The two best teams in the NFL will face each other in the AFC Championship unless something crazy happens, this will be the unofficial Super Bowl. Given that matchup would be in Denver, I would give the edge to the Broncos. If the 49ers play the good football they are capable of then they will easily steamroll the NFC. Given the Colin Kapernick factor, and their sporadic on and off play so far this season though, you never know. I'm not sold on the Falcons at all. I am looking for the Vikings to pull off the upset this weekend since apparently nobody on the Packers' defense has the courage or ability to tackle Adrian Peterson. If the Vikings can run the ball, control posession, effectively execute the play action pass (they should have the best play action in the league!), and their defensive line can harass Aaron Rodgers they should be able to win the game. That said, I could see the Vikings also beating the Falcons in the divisional round if Adrian Peterson can maintain his momentum. I don't see them beating the 49ers though.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Faraday

[Guest Gnome Chomsky]

Good analysis. I definitely see the AFC coming down to the Broncos and Patriots. The Pats have possibly the best offense of all time but the Broncos are the most balanced team in the NFL. They are the #2 ranked offense and #2 ranked defense in the AFC. Of course the media would love to see Peyton win. I doubted the Texans all season and they finally proved me right by falling apart the last month of the season. 

 

I've also doubted the Falcons all season but they haven't yet proved me right. They do have an amazing passing game with their top two WRs and their TE. Their running game isn't all that great, their defense is slightly above average but not amazing (they do have an excellent pass defense though), and I don't know if I view Matt Ryan as a Super Bowl QB. The NFC is really a crap shoot. Redskins are on a 7 game winning streak, Seahawks look like the hottest team right now, Packers looked great up until their last game, Adrian Peterson looks unstoppable, and the 49ers look great one week and then not-so-much the next. I also don't know if I agree with the decision to bench Alex Smith. 

 

Overall, it could go any way in the NFC and will most likely come down to the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC. I just did my most media-friendly predictions. 

[bamafan]

I would just like to say that Alabama is killing ND. That is all.

[Faraday]

I would just like to say that Alabama is killing ND. That is all.

 

I don't know why anyone would have expected anything else. The real national championship game was played a few weeks ago in Atlanta. Notre Dame football is pretty good but there's the SEC, and then there is everyone else...

 

Alabama, Georga, LSU, and Florida are in a league of their own.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

I don't know why anyone would have expected anything else. The real national championship game was played a few weeks ago in Atlanta. Notre Dame football is pretty good but there's the SEC, and then there is everyone else...

 

Alabama, Georga, LSU, and Florida are in a league of their own.

 

Yup, but I'd be on the lookout for TA&M. Manziel looks to be for real.

[rising_star]

Can you really put the Gators in that category after their flop against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl?

[Guest Gnome Chomsky]

Can you really put the Gators in that category after their flop against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl?

I agree. The 4 best teams in the country are Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Oregon (2-4 in no particular order). 

[Faraday]

Can you really put the Gators in that category after their flop against Louisville in the Sugar Bowl?

 

 

I agree. The 4 best teams in the country are Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Oregon (2-4 in no particular order). 

 

Oh please. One poor performance doesn't undo an entire season of spectacular play. What teams did TAMU lose to this season? Florida and LSU. 9 times out of 10 they lose to Alabama. Oregon isn't even in the picture. The SEC teams are just too big and too fast for anyone else to handle.

 

1. Alabama

2. Georga

3. Florida

4. LSU

5. TAMU

6. Oregon

Edited January 10, 2013 by Faraday

[ohgoodness]

Yesterday was such a lovely day for sports; 'Sota fan as deep as it goes and watching the gophers run with the Indiana was an amazing treat. Upset about refs but whatevers.

Then Packers lost! And Ravens won! This must signify A.P for MVP! People are going to be sad about Peyton after those INTS.

Prediction; Pats - Ravens; Pats will go nuts on medium gains and win by 10. Then resign Randy and I will be elected president for these predictions.

[bamafan]

I'm very happy the Pack got hammered too. Kaepernick looks like a future superstar in the league. As for Peyton, I want to lay the blame on John Fox... I can understand why they didn't go for it on 3rd down in the second to last series in regulation... even if you don't get the down, running it burns another 40s off the clock, though I'd have gone for it b/c you know, I hear that Peyton guy is pretty good. But what was unforgivable was taking a knee with 31 seconds left and TWO timeouts. It's not like they had to get a TD either, marching downfield just 40 yards is a long but not impossible FG... and instead, they take a knee and let the clock run out in regulation. I kind of wondered if Peyton was secretly hurt, since his throws didn't seem to have very much zip during the OT.

[Dal PhDer]

What an amazing weekend for football, eh?

 

I was surprised the 49ers stomped the packers! I think I'm going to have to go with them this year...normally I'm a true and true NE fan...but I feel like Brady just doesn't have the steam in him.

 

I think it will be the 49ers vs. NE in the superbowl. 

 

49ers will win! I think Kaepernick has the gumption to pull it off! I love it!

[EdYouKateOr]

What an amazing weekend for football, eh?   I think it will be the 49ers vs. NE in the superbowl.    49ers will win! I think Kaepernick has the gumption to pull it off! I love it!

I agree, but I would love to see a Harbaugh brother Super Bowl! With the 49ers coming out on top!

[EquationForLife]

You guys can all keep on hating on the Ravens, like most other people in America...predicting us to lose in every round so far. 

[Faraday]

Nobody is "hating" on the Ravens, we're choosing the 9 point underdogs to actually lose the game...

 

Unless the New England defense decides not to play (as Denver did last week), this will be a very difficult game for the Ravens to win. That's not exactly stretching the truth.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

On 1/14/2013 at 7:35 AM, Dal PhDer said:

What an amazing weekend for football, eh?

 

I was surprised the 49ers stomped the packers! I think I'm going to have to go with them this year...normally I'm a true and true NE fan...but I feel like Brady just doesn't have the steam in him.

 

I think it will be the 49ers vs. NE in the superbowl. 

 

49ers will win! I think Kaepernick has the gumption to pull it off! I love it!

 

 

I'm not surprised at all. I've watched Kap since they murdered my Bears and this kid is Russell Wilson with Cam Newton's size. A real steal in last year's second round, especially since he's gotten a year to develop under Alex Smith. The real threat about him is his release time -- it's hard to sack him because he gets the ball out of his hand's in Aaron Rodgers-like times and his release speed and arm strength is Jay Cutler-esque. Seriously, have you seen the velocity of his throws? Sometimes it looks like his receivers can't handle it. I guess that's what happens when your QB used to be a NCAA pitcher. 

 

I also think they will slaughter the overrated Falcons. Don't get me wrong, the Falcons are an elite team, but they aren't as good in my opinion as the other top contenders in this year's playoffs. Their defense is excellent in scoring defense to middling to average in other categories, suggesting they have a Lovie Smith-esque "bend but don't break" philosophy and excellent red zone defense. They problem with that is Kap's Niners are lethal in the redzone and, if the Falcons make it to the SB, Brady's Pats are even more lethal in the redzone. Part of this is the up tempo attack, which has been described by some players as "almost illegal" -- it's not, it just shows absurdly great coaching and discipline in players to be able to set properly and snap the ball within a fraction of a second of being set, which catches defenses off guard. If anyone watched the Houston game, you could see at least a couple TDs occurred because Houston wasn't even ready for the snap and there were totally blown assignments, which allowed NE players to literally walk into the endzone. I think another aspect is psychological; it has to be frustrating to continuously give up yards because the other team is marching downfield before you're even ready to play.

 

However, I think the Pats win their Niners rematch in the SB (bias note: I'm a Boston adopted son since I went to UG there). Remember, they almost overcame a 31-pt deficit behind four straight TD drives. Brady is a guy who holds grudges, he's going to gun for the kill right away to make up for that game and last year's SB loss. Even without Gronk, the Pats have too many weapons for the 49ers secondary to handle, especially if Vereen and Ridley show up big in the run game. If the Niners have to load the box, further hindering their famed pass rush, which has disappeared for the last few games, they will be really vulnerable to NE's passing attack.

 

In contrast, the 49ers are very run dependent, and while the Pats secondary has been vulnerable to the big play, that's not really Kap or the Niners game plan. They run, run, and run some more behind Gore and Kap. I think besides a few big first downs, they're going to hit a brick wall with guys like Wilfork in the middle. That is one big man I would not want sitting on me. Plus, the Talib acquisition has been a tremendous upgrade at CB for the Pats. Him and Dennard look like a promising CB tandem in the future, not quite shutdown but with the potential to be like Tillman/Jennings. That said, I could see the Niners having some success in the air because their O-Line should be able to buy Kap some time; they're giants.

 

Of course, anything can happen on any given Sunday. If it is 49ers-Pats, that should be an exciting SB. Better than a Harbaugh family feud imo (sorry Ravens fans). I don't give the Ravens much of a chance. Their best hope is to go into the vertical passing game and try to expose the Pats secondary, but like I said, it's a lot better than the start of the season (the whole defense is a lot better), when the Ravens barely squeaked out a 1pt game thanks to the replacement refs. Torrey Smith is probably the most dangerous player for the Ravens, but I imagine Talib will fare better than Champ Bailey's shocking implosion last week. If they can hold him to one TD or less, I don't think the Ravens have enough offensive talent.

[bamafan]

http://deadspin.com/5976517/manti-teos-dead-girlfriend-the-most-heartbreaking-and-inspirational-story-of-the-college-football-season-is-a-hoax

 

In other news, this is bizarre and shocking. I don't know if he's complicit, in which case I have lost tremendous respect for him, or if he has genuinely been hoaxed, in which case he is an idiot for having never met the girl.

[rising_star]

bamafan, that story has seriously taken me in for the past few hours. I keep going from sports site to sports site to read opinions on why he would fake a girlfriend and how all the sports media failed by not realizing this was a scam. Seriously intriguing in so many ways.

[Dal PhDer]

49er's woo!!

 

Gotta give the Ravens credit- they're putting up a fantastic game against the Pats!

 

But, if the Pats win...I'll get my $10 win in ProLine! Woot! ..

[EdYouKateOr]

I got my Harbaugh Bowl!

[bamafan]

Yeah, my giant post above now makes me feel stupid. But mostly sad. This was the first time ever that Brady and co have lost at home while leading at half-time (previously, they were 66-0). Truthfully, the Patriots killed themselves more than anything else with poor coaching, drops, and injuries, but credit the Ravens defense for showing up. An interesting observation is that the Ravens' path to the Super Bowl strongly mirrors that of the previous two winners, the Giants and Packers, as underdog, overlooked 4th seeds. Something to think about if you believe in history. But yeah, the Niners I like. The Ravens I do not. I can't wait to see what kind of tantrums are going to happen in N.O. when we have not one, but TWO, Harbaugh brothers manning the sidelines (see Figure A). The poor refs are going to need counseling after that one.

 

Anyway, here's my prediction and analysis for two weeks from now. Take it for what it's worth, considering I'm 0-2 in predicting this week's championship games (yes, I got the 49ers pick right, but barely, as I thought they'd run all over the soft Falcons, which they didn't until they figured things out in the 2nd half).

 

Today, the Patriots' secondary was exposed today after the loss of Talib (but was shutdown dominant vs Ravens' pass game before that), when Bolden started running buck wild against an undersized Arrington, so I stand by what I said last week about the Ravens' passing. They only have three viable targets and are wholly dependent on that for their entire offense. The Niners had the 3rd best regular season defense in the league and a fearsome pass rush had faltered recently but finally showed up today vs the Falcons. While the Ravens' o-line is outstanding and kept Flacco mostly upright, Aldon Smith, et. al. should wreak some havoc.

 

On the other side, three words: Colin fucking Kaepernick (this kid has spunk... see Figure . I gushed about his skills earlier, and I'll do it again. I'm not sure Frank Gore and Kap will be able to run consistently against the Ravens either, but even today against the Pats, the Ravens have been "leaky". The Ravens struggled badly with the read option when they faced RG3 (and Cousins for that matter), so it will be curious if they can figure it out in time vs Kap. For the record, vs the Packers, Kap ran for a ridonkulousaurus 181 yards off the read option/scrambles, and while he didn't run it once today vs the Falcons, that they had to put a spy defender on him opened up Gore for some big runs/TDs. Just the threat of Kaepernick will force the Ravens to be honest, and you have to figure Suggs or Lewis will be responsible for Kap. Unfortunately for the Ravens though, this guy has an arm that can rival Flacco and just as dangerous receivers in Crabtree and the ageless Moss. I think the difference in this game will be that the Niners can run, which will eventually lead to some favorable coverages. Meanwhile, the Ravens will have to keep throwing (but that's fine for them, because that's their whole offense anyway, and with Flacco, he will keep them in it), but ultimately, they'll succumb due to a fatigued defense and too many long 49ers drives on the ground. Also, the Niners offensive line is disgusting. They are enormous. TV stat of today -- their "jumbo" package weigh a combined 2250 lbs. Good lord.

 

Hope I don't embarrass myself again with my prediction, but come the HarBowl (I feel disgusted just saying that), the Ravens keep it close, but Niners take their first SB since 94 and stay perfect in Super Bowls at 6-0. 

 

Final score -- Niners 31 v Ravens 24. 

 

 

EDIT: Lovely pictures...

 

Figure A. "I WANT MY CAKE NAO NAO NAO!"

 

 

Figure B. Dafuq is in my shit? I'm just gonna put that back... 

[bamafan]

Given the fact that my teams almost always lose and now that I've publicly jinxed the 49ers, the Ravens will probably throw for 12TDs by halftime and the Niners just forfeit and cry. 

 

In all seriousness, some intangibles to ponder beyond the plain old offense v. defense analysis I posted above:

 

- Kaepernick's inexperience. He's been cool under pressure so far, but it's the Super Bowl!

- The emotion / motivation of the Ravens to send Ray Lewis off with a bang (seriously, what kind of Batman-broken-spine-recovery drugs was he taking to return from a fully torn triceps in 8 weeks and then proceed to kick serious ass?!). 

- David Akers' struggles this season, including a missed chip shot today.

- The discipline / penalty issues that have plagued the Ravens.

- Both teams' "hard-hitting" reputation, put on display today when Pollard proceeded to try and murder a fourth Patriot in as many seasons. 

- Flacco's "away" performance. It's a neutral field, but aside from this playoffs, he's been historically great at home and mediocre away. It's like Jay Cutler's Jekyll/Hyde but worse; which Flacco are you going to get? The Brady/Manning-killer or the guy who posted a 0.3 and 0.4 QBR this season.

- and last but not least, me... because I tend to jinx teams and the real reason Akers missed that FG is because I didn't re-orient my Bud Light. Should've listened to that goddamn commercial. 

[Guest Gnome Chomsky]

I wouldn't say he's been terrible away. I believe Flacco has more road playoff wins than some of the all-time greats. The majority of great QBs built their legacy at home.

It's amazing to see Jim Harbaugh take risk after risk and it always pay off. He's looking like the biggest genius in the world. It's funny how different the two brothers' coaching styles are. John is much more old school, conservative.

Everyone is talking about this being Ray Lewis' last game but it also may be Randy Moss' last. Of course he isn't such an integral part of the team like Ray Ray is. He did have a pretty good game yesterday though.

I'm starting to feel bad for Manti. I admit I was excited about the story when it first broke, mainly because it was so bizarre. But it's starting to sound like he genuinely got hoaxed. All I know is getting "catfished" is probably one of the most embarrassing things that could happen to someone. If you do get catfished, you'd rather few to no people know about it. In Manti's case, it's been the top news story on every network since it broke. I really feel bad for the kid.

[ohgoodness]

I got my Harbaugh Bowl!

 

Would be so fun if this game become a complete fluke. 6-3 on fgs...  49ers miss 4 fgs within 30yards and Colin K breaks both arms after being sacked by his center..  Since the 49ers pissed off Alex Smith; he'll refuse to play, get traded to the jets for sanchez and then the 49ers relocates to Sacramento and becomes a d-league team to new 'sonics (yes we're talking basketball).  49ers are the NFL's version of the Wpeg Blue Bombers.   Why Randy wants to play there beats me.   I  got really iffed when Harbaugh started to cry about that non-reversal call on the reception - reminded me of Adam Morrison..... 

 

Only thing that could be worse than this is that if the seahawks would have gone this far.  USC uuuh. 

Edited January 21, 2013 by cherub

[Dal PhDer]

I'm so torn now. I really had anticipated a Brady vs. Kaepernick showdown for the Superbowl...and while I've been a NE fan for the last 10 years, I was ready to hand my QB love to the 49er's and cheer for them.

 

But it's the Ravens...they have heart, and smiles, and puppy dogs, and dammit...I just like them. I don't know...I think I'm going to have to go for the underdog here.

 

PS: bamafan- thank you for the fantastic .gifs!! LOVE THEM!!