your NFL playoff predictions

[rising_star]

I'm starting to feel bad for Manti. I admit I was excited about the story when it first broke, mainly because it was so bizarre. But it's starting to sound like he genuinely got hoaxed. All I know is getting "catfished" is probably one of the most embarrassing things that could happen to someone. If you do get catfished, you'd rather few to no people know about it. In Manti's case, it's been the top news story on every network since it broke. I really feel bad for the kid.

 

The Manti Te'o story is the gift that keeps on giving. I have to admit I'm thoroughly enjoying the rampant speculation about why he didn't think something was weird, why he lied to his parents and friends, and why he didn't ever go see his dying girlfriend even though he was flying home anyway. I'm curious about the rumors about his sexuality, which of course will never be addressed because football is a macho sport. But, seriously can't wait for the Katie Couric interview to air on Thursday. And the Bill Simmons All Te'o Mailbag? There's some real gems in there if you haven't read it yet.

[Guest Gnome Chomsky]

The Manti Te'o story is the gift that keeps on giving. I have to admit I'm thoroughly enjoying the rampant speculation about why he didn't think something was weird, why he lied to his parents and friends, and why he didn't ever go see his dying girlfriend even though he was flying home anyway. I'm curious about the rumors about his sexuality, which of course will never be addressed because football is a macho sport. But, seriously can't wait for the Katie Couric interview to air on Thursday. And the Bill Simmons All Te'o Mailbag? There's some real gems in there if you haven't read it yet.

Yeah, I just feel weird about the whole thing. If he's truly a victim, I feel really bad for the guy. I couldn't think of a worse thing than to be deceived into loving someone, finding out it's a hoax, and having the whole world find out about it. But if he's in on it, he deserves all the ridicule he gets.

[bamafan]

I wouldn't say he's been terrible away. I believe Flacco has more road playoff wins than some of the all-time greats. The majority of great QBs built their legacy at home.

It's amazing to see Jim Harbaugh take risk after risk and it always pay off. He's looking like the biggest genius in the world. It's funny how different the two brothers' coaching styles are. John is much more old school, conservative.

Everyone is talking about this being Ray Lewis' last game but it also may be Randy Moss' last. Of course he isn't such an integral part of the team like Ray Ray is. He did have a pretty good game yesterday though.

I'm starting to feel bad for Manti. I admit I was excited about the story when it first broke, mainly because it was so bizarre. But it's starting to sound like he genuinely got hoaxed. All I know is getting "catfished" is probably one of the most embarrassing things that could happen to someone. If you do get catfished, you'd rather few to no people know about it. In Manti's case, it's been the top news story on every network since it broke. I really feel bad for the kid.

 

Fair point, he's 8-4, when I said terrible away, I didn't mean specifically win percentage or even in the playoffs, but rather overall performance. In Baltimore, the Ravens are hard to beat and he looks elite. Away, the Ravens are easier to beat and even when the Ravens win, his performance is generally mediocre to poor, though these playoffs are certainly bucking that trend. Dude is going to get a mega contract whether or not they win the SB. Good for him, he took a risk last off season and it looks like it's going to pay off big time. 

 

But yeah, I'd say Jim Harbaugh is easily the best coach in the league behind Bill Belichick (yes, I know about 50% of the world hates BB, but you can't deny the man's genius). Harbaugh plays things in a way I respect -- high risk, high reward, and right now, it seems like a lot of reward. I'd argue John Harbaugh is fairly bold too when it comes to personnel decisions, the most recent being of course the elevation of Jim Caldwell to OC this late in the game, which I'd point to as the biggest factor for the Ravens getting hot at the right time. Their offense was fairly anemic at times under Cameron, but has been consistently dominant ever since he took over and Flacco's performance has jumped up because of it. 

 

Forgotten in all of this is poor Alex Smith. Any guesses to where he'll end up next year? He's always been playing under the label of not living up to his draft status, and this might ruin his confidence. 

 

Interesting point about this being the end of Moss' career as well. Another guy who I really think deserved to be in the Super Bowl is Tony Gonzalez. This guy has been playing TE in the NFL since practically before many of us were alive, certainly before some of us could read/write. A true pro's pro, but never got to the big one. At least he finally got a playoff win. 

 

And rising_star said it best: "The Manti Te'o story is the gift that keeps on giving". I especially liked Bill Simmons' description of the Tyson Zone. I was pretty to see that he got an ESPN contract this year to be on air, I've been reading his stuff ever since I also became an overly biased, obnoxious Celtics fan. The funny thing is, his joke about Belichick being behind the Te'o hoax might half be spot on; of course, no NFL team is behind this, but now he will likely slide to the late first round or even mid second, where the Pats or Bears might be able to pick him up (though honestly, I'd draft Alec Ogletree over Te'o).

[Faraday]

Not sure what to think about the Super Bowl. One thing we can expect is a media frenzy over the next two weeks about the great and almighty "Harbaugh Bowl". We had a week of anticipation last year when they played during the regular season; I can't imagine what this will be like...

As for the game I would say it will be wild and unpredictable. The 49ers are off one quarter and the on the next. The Ravens while they have been pretty consistent this post-season still can't change their erratic play all regular season long, including Joe Flacco's often lack of ability at QB. If they continue their pattern of consistency they can win but I find it hard to believe they will play out of their minds for a third consecutive game in a row. The 49ers need to strike early and get a lead to knock some of the wind out of the Ravens' Ray Lewis-fueled sails. The 49ers also need to get pressure on Joe Flacco. Where is Aldon Smith? It seems like he's been playing some Manti Te'o invisible magic trick for the past few weeks.

Edited January 22, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

Faraday, are you a 49ers fan in Maryland?! 

[Faraday]

Oh dead God no. I'm a Redskins fan. I am not a Ravens fan, however this is probably because I go to a university dominated by Ravens fans and I often find their blind team spirit to be insufferable. As you can imagine the past three weeks have been pretty crazy, I just keep remembering how my team got the better of the Ravens during the regular season.

Edited January 22, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

Haha, I see. Indeed, that's why I think the Ravens might have trouble with the read option. It's a shame about RG3 though. I am a huge fan of him and his game and you can count me among the people who blame Shanahan. Even if the docs said he was a-okay, I wouldn't have risked it because you have Kirk Cousins, who also looks like he could be a starter somewhere. 

 

But the crop of young quarterbacks this year is just absurd. Luck, RG3, Wilson, even Weeden and Tannehill have been decent. I even feel inclined to lump Kap in here since this is his first year starting.

[EdYouKateOr]

  But the crop of young quarterbacks this year is just absurd. Luck, RG3, Wilson, even Weeden and Tannehill have been decent. I even feel inclined to lump Kap in here since this is his first year starting.

AGREED!

[Dal PhDer]

Wait...you mean you guys pick teams based on stats and actual players? hehehe...

 

I just began reading about the whole Manti Te'o story today (I've been living in a bubble)...it's beyond bizarre. 

[Faraday]

Haha, I see. Indeed, that's why I think the Ravens might have trouble with the read option. It's a shame about RG3 though. I am a huge fan of him and his game and you can count me among the people who blame Shanahan. Even if the docs said he was a-okay, I wouldn't have risked it because you have Kirk Cousins, who also looks like he could be a starter somewhere. 

 

But the crop of young quarterbacks this year is just absurd. Luck, RG3, Wilson, even Weeden and Tannehill have been decent. I even feel inclined to lump Kap in here since this is his first year starting.

I actually can't stand RG3. Yes he produced results, but he wasn't worth it. With the way he plays and the kind of body he has, he will be lucky to play 5 full seasons in the NFL. He'll probably have a career similar to Michael Vick in terms of longevity down the stretch. This is a shame because out of RG3, Luck, and Wilson, RG3 probably has just as good if not better accuracy, throwing power, and QB IQ as the others, but he can't just play a pocket QB like he should. Read option is a joke. Mobile QBs who can extend the play are the future of the NFL but not this read option stuff. Defenses will adapt to the latter, and read option QBs can easily get injured. Extending plays however will always be important. That's the difference between Brady, Brees, and P.Manning vs. Rodgers, and why Rodgers has the chance to be better than all three of those QBs is the Packers can get their stuff together as a team.

The bottom line is the Redskins gave up far too much for RG3 when we don't know if he will even be able to be a franchise QB. If he's missing 3-4 games per season what good is that? He can't lead the team if he's not on the field. We should have stuck with Kirk Cousins and kept those three first round draft picks to build our defense.

Sorry, but Weeden and Tannehill were horrible this season. I don't see how you can defend either of them. There's a reason the Browns are considering trading for Ryan Mallet. Tannehill is not as bad but with the unstable environment in Miami (their inability to win, changing of personel, etc.) I can't see him developing into a great QB. I'm still not sold on Kapernick, a good defense can make a QB look a lot better than they really are, hence why Luck and RG3 were much more impressive than Wilson this season. The next two seasons will be his proving ground (we need a larger sample size).

Edited January 22, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

I actually can't stand RG3. Yes he produced results, but he wasn't worth it. With the way he plays and the kind of body he has, he will be lucky to play 5 full seasons in the NFL. He'll probably have a career similar to Michael Vick in terms of longevity down the stretch. This is a shame because out of RG3, Luck, and Wilson, RG3 probably has just as good if not better accuracy, throwing power, and QB IQ as the others, but he can't just play a pocket QB like he should. Read option is a joke. Mobile QBs who can extend the play are the future of the NFL but not this read option stuff. Defenses will adapt to the latter, and read option QBs can easily get injured. Extending plays however will always be important. That's the difference between Brady, Brees, and P.Manning vs. Rodgers, and why Rodgers has the chance to be better than all three of those QBs is the Packers can get their stuff together as a team.

The bottom line is the Redskins gave up far too much for RG3 when we don't know if he will even be able to be a franchise QB. If he's missing 3-4 games per season what good is that? He can't lead the team if he's not on the field. We should have stuck with Kirk Cousins and kept those three first round draft picks to build our defense.

Sorry, but Weeden and Tannehill were horrible this season. I don't see how you can defend either of them. There's a reason the Browns are considering trading for Ryan Mallet. Tannehill is not as bad but with the unstable environment in Miami (their inability to win, changing of personel, etc.) I can't see him developing into a great QB. I'm still not sold on Kapernick, a good defense can make a QB look a lot better than they really are, hence why Luck and RG3 were much more impressive than Wilson this season. The next two seasons will be his proving ground (we need a larger sample size).

Very interesting perspective, I don't know many Redskins fans, so it's quite refreshing to see one who does not like him. I think his biggest problem is that he thinks he can take hits like Cam Newton, when in reality, he's Vick-sized whereas Cam Newton is a monster. That's one comparison I hate -- RG3 to Cam Newton. Their builds and play are totally different. RG3 is to Vick whereas Newton is more akin to Big Ben.

 

As far as rookie seasons go, Weeden wasn't that horrible and he held it together okay considering the enormous disaster that is the Browns organization and their "offense" (aka Trent Richardson). If you think about it, his main issues were just accuracy (he was prone to under/overthrow) and his poor decisions/risk-taking, which led to a lot of INTs. The former can be attributed to him having to learn a new system and adapt to a pro-style NFL offense, which nearly all rookie QBs struggle with except Andrew Luck (the reason why so many teams do college offenses with zone reads, etc). But, I would agree that his ceiling is pretty low. He's probably the best QB they've had in decades, though that's not so much a compliment to him as an indictment of the Browns. Overall, I personally wouldn't describe him as horrible, just uneven. He just looks really, really bad because of the class he came out of, which features a number of potential superstars. He's definitely not a first-rounder though in my opinion. So now that I think about it, in the context of expectations, then sure, I'll agree he's been horrible. I think the Browns made a huge mistake firing Heckert. This guy has done everything right for the franchise (the blame for the Weeden pick goes on the owner). I don't think they'll find a more capable GM any time soon.

 

I actually also think Wilson was more impressive than RG3. He had a rough start to the season, but since then, had been on a tear and in many ways, has been the best QB in the league in the second half of the season. He doesn't do gimmicky runs, but is lethal as an instinctive scrambler, a la Aaron Rodgers, and also has a cannon for an arm. Seriously, I remember watching one of his hail mary's. It went 60+ yards and he didn't even wind up before the throw. The only problem is that he's short... he has to do the Drew Brees baby hop step just to see over his line men... 

[Faraday]

When you look at Russell Wilson and RG3 you have to look at the whole picture. The both have an all-star runnning back, so those cancel each other out. Andrew Luck for example has no running back and no defense so his volume of work stands on its own. Russell Wilson has a defense and RG3 does not, there is the difference.

RG3 has been playing from behind almost the entire season, the Redskins have been RG3, nobody else (with Alfred Morris cancelled out), he has been the one to win games. With the Seahawks (top scoring defense in the league, among the best in pass/run), Russell has had a much better ability to play safely. He doesn't need to do all the work for his team. This ignores the fact that Russell Wilson plays with the best home field advantage in the league (I don't think anyone would argue that the Seahawks are better than the Patriots or 49ers on neutral ground). In the end Russell hasn't been as impressive simply because he has had a great team around him. This doesn't mean he hasn't done good work but it shows that he hasn't been as impressive because his body of work is less. One might argue on this ground that Andrew Luck's body of work was more and hence should win ROTY, which I could agree with, but certainly not Russell Wilson.

Arm strength is overrated, see Jay Cutler.

It's like he's not even trying and he hits his receiver perfectly in stride. Decision making is the most important factor as long as you have a minimal level of arm strength. Again, see Jay Cutler:

I realize most of the reason Jay Cutler is bad is because his offensive line is about as real as Manti Te'o's girlfriend, but you get the point about decision making.

Edited January 23, 2013 by Faraday

[bamafan]

I don't know if I agree with that completely. While a poor defense (and you're right, the Redskins pass coverage is atrocious) puts more pressure on the offense to deliver, Wilson also had to play from behind on a number of occasions and pulled off several comeback wins. Also, to be fair, the Redskin's run defense is really good, it's just their terrible secondary that gave up TDs. If they can get some good corners, the Redskins should be in the thick of it next season. Overall, RG3 certainly had a more difficult time, but even accounting for that, I think Russell Wilson's sheer performance is enough for me to give him the nod. But that's just my personal opinion. 

 

Ugh, don't even get me started on Jay. I'm a hometown Bears fan. I honestly believe he has one of the most unique skill sets in the entire league, but his career has been crippled by the fact he's had to play for the Bears the last five years. In his early Denver years, he looked like he was going to be elite. Then, he spent the last half decade as a human punching bag behind a worthless o-line and several dunces for offensive coordinators. 
 

Arm strength may not be the *biggest* factor, far from it, but it is really important. It's the reason guys like Matt Stafford (I'll take flak for this one, but I think it's more that he can throw from all sorts of weird crazy angles than his strength) can't win you games or Peyton has to kneel. They just can't get it downfield when it matters. It's also why Wilson or this week's big-man-on-campus Joe Flacco can pull off so many miracle plays; they can just air it out and let their big receivers go up for it or put it where only their receivers can grab it. Arm strength is also a key factor behind accuracy (I mean physical accuracy, not accuracy as a statistic as in completion %). Of course, decision making is the most important thing for that -- don't throw it into tight windows or mulitiple coverage if you can avoid it -- but sometimes (read: often), you have no choice and a QB with good arm strength can fit it into tiny windows. Maybe most of all, not having a big arm limits your offense significantly in what kind of things your OC can run through your QB and eliminates the threat of the big play, which lets the defense sit on horizontal routes and load the box. It's kind of a double-edged sword though; I'd argue this is why guys like Cutler have poor mechanics and are lazy. If you can get away with difficult throws because you have a rifle arm, you put less effort into refining your game. 

 

Like I said, I do agree that decision making is probably THE most important factor. An example of an ageless arm and reckless play would be Brett Favre. He's really overrated in my opinion. The problem with sports is the short memory people have, and also the sensational narratives. Favre gets excused for all his poor playmaking because he won the big one pretty early in his career. Yet the media likes to spin major events. For instance, look at Matt Ryan. Whether or not the Falcons made it to the SB, he's the same goddamn player. But now, the story is how he's still a choker, whereas if he had made it, everyone would be talking about how Ryan has finally arrived as an elite QB.

 

But back on topic, when you put smarts and experience together with a guy who honestly has impressively good arm strength for his age, you get Tom Brady. 

Edited January 23, 2013 by bamafan

[Faraday]

I think Brett Favre deserves his due credit. If there was a Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks it would contain in no particular order

Joe Montana

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Johnny Unitas

In the second tier we have the likes of Brett Favre, John Elway, Steve Young, Otto Graham, Dan Marino, and some others.

The difference between Jay Cutler and Brett Favre is not necessarily decision making but rather execution. They called Brett Favre a "gunslinger" for a reason, because he embodied a high risk/high reward style of quarterback play. He would throw that ball into any kind of coverage because he knew that more often than not either his receiver would catching it or the ball out fall incomplete. 336 times that didn't quite work out as planned, but there has never been a quarterback with as many spectacular deep passes as Farve simply because he was willing to take risks others wouldn't think twice about.

The difference between him and Jay Cutler is execution. More often than not he got it done. Yes he had some spectacular interceptions but it wasn't a careless interception, it was a calculated risk. You see Jay Cutler play and it is the exact opposite. I only watched one Bears game this year (I think it was a Monday night football game?) and I recall one throw where Jay Cutler was under pressure, running around trying to avoid getting sacked and you can see as soon as he realizes he is about to get hit by a train he simply winds up and throws it deep off his back foot without even looking where he is throwing. The result? It is underthrown by about 5-10 yards and easily picked off. Execution, execution, execution.

That said, in the modern football league gunslinger quarterbacks are discouraged in favor of the more traditional pocket/mobile quarterback who can keep the game and momentum flowing in their direction. An interception-prone gunslinger would not be able to handle keeping a steady rhythym on offense.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Faraday