Probability!

[roguesenna]

 I'm a theatre/literature person, not a math person, so I'm wondering.

 

Is there anyone out there who could actually calculate my specific probability of getting into a particular school? I'll give you all the info at my disposal. Just out of curiosity's sake, not for any material reason. Something to go "oh, well I only had an X% chance of getting in" or "I can't believe I got in, it was a 1 in X chance!" 

 

Also, I'll take pretty much anything to distract me from the waiting at this point.

 

Also, if you can't because there's information not available to us, can you tell me how you would go about calculating it if you did have that info? or estimate the values?

 

fun with numbers!

Edited February 26, 2014 by roguesenna

[krishnalynn]

I really doubt there's a way to calculate a specific probability. Grad admissions are the furthest thing from a formula. 

[zipykido]

It wouldn't be too hard to come up with a formula but it's nearly impossible to guess the data required to completely guess your chances. It would be something like:

 

x = number of spots

y = number of applicants

s = correction factor

% = (s*x/y)*100

 

The correction factor is based on your strength as a candidate and you could probably come up with a way to measure it based on things like publications, research experience, charm, intelligence, program fit, connections, etc.

 

So if the number of spots they have is less than the number of applicants they receive there is a good chance you will receive an offer. 

[IRToni]

So if the number of spots they have is less than the number of applicants they receive there is a good chance you will receive an offer. 

 

I would say it the other way around: If they have more spots than they have applicants, then it is likely you will receive an offer.

[PhDerp]

I feel so appreciated! But someone beat me to it. ;___;

[DGChaos]

Ha ha. Well, you'll have to make some assumptions--and to be on the safe side, consider a bleak scenario. Also, I accounted for the correction factor zip mentioned earlier, but never pushed it past a value of 1.

Suppose you are applying to programs A, B, and C.
If your stats are similar or higher than those who got into these programs, just take probability of getting into A: prob(A) = (number of accepts in A/number of applicants). Otherwise, take half of the probability (just so you don't overestimate). If your stats are noticeably lower, don't consider the school during your calculations.
 

Take the probability of not getting into A as probnot(A) = 1 - prob(A).

 

Now, the overall probability of getting into at least one school is: 1 - probnot(A)*probnot(B )*probnot(C ).

In my case, the probability of getting into at least one school out of the three interviews I finished will be: 1 - 0.8*0.8*0.7 = 0.55. (where the probabilities of getting into A, B, and C are 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 respectively). 

Cheers. And good luck.
  

Edited February 27, 2014 by DGChaos

[roguesenna]

thanks for indulging me everyone.

 

In case you're curious.

 

My two schools, C & N.

 

C: accepts 3 students out of about 100 applicants.

 

N: accepts "up to" 4 students out of ?? applicants. However, the general knowledge is that N doesn't accept students who haven't gone to their MA so I don't know how you would factor that in.

 

My stats: uGPA is meh. GPA from my MFA is 3.75. GRE cumulative was 215 (C requirement is 210) with 167 V and 5.5 AW (my program is Theatre & Comparitive Lit or Theatre and Performance Studies, so I think the QR is irrelevant except in that it brings my cumulative above 210). both of those numbers are in the 97%. I am a very strong writer, and tend to do well on cover letters and personal essays. I think my paper (writing sample) is strong, but I don't have any publications (not sure that's common in TAPS). I have had several of my plays produced and I co-founded multiple student organizations both in undergrad and grad school.

 

That said, I have no idea how this would compare me to the rest of the applicant pool. I'd be willing to assume that there are at least 20% or so that are just completely unqualified. There are probably another 20-40% who only have B.A.s and I probably have a slight leg up over them. I think my GREs might push me into the top 20 or 30%, but I don't know if that's enough for an acceptance rate that's basically about 3 or 4% with school © at least (which is my first choice anyway).

 

So how do I get a "correction factor" out of that data? Or I don't cause there's not enough evidence to compare me to the rest of the applicant pool?

 

ETA: No stats for anyone on results page for either of these programs. No one (from GradCafe) who has applied to any of them has ever gotten in. :/ Though it seems like I'd be a shoe-in for school N's MA program, which I have as a backup.

Edited February 27, 2014 by roguesenna

[PsychGradHopeful14]

I think there was a "magic 8-ball" thread on this board where people were using one to gauge their chances and posting what it said.  I think that is about as reliable of an estimate as trying to quantitatively calculate your chances.  A lot of the variables you would use are subjective, and may be viewed differently on the admissions committee side of the process, and you have no idea who else is applying.  Grad admissions really can be a "roll of the dice" for most people from what I have seen/heard.

[roguesenna]

that's why I'm not taking it seriously. Like I said in the beginning, this is for fun and to play with numbers. I'm offering my personal data because that's the data I have and I like to analyze things.

Edited February 27, 2014 by roguesenna