Some costs are not measurable, but then I've always been more of a poststructuralist (my IR nerds will understand me here).
If you get rejected the first time around and you don't want to apply again, then it is a sure sign that you do not belong in academia. Getting into a PhD program is tough and the difficulties do not end there (for example, everyone can expect to have their articles rejected from journals). However, most of us are well aware of the downsides of doing a PhD and we accept it and continue with our studies. To get through a PhD program, and life in general, does not only require being smart, but persistent.