Really sorry to hear about your loss. Things are very unpredictable right now, so I don't think anyone can say yet what will happen to fall semester. I think the good news is that if things don't get better by then, universities will extend their closures through fall semester or however long it takes. Of course this isn't "good", but it would be necessary and would still allow students to do classes, research, and so on remotely, hopefully in a more comfortable and safe environment. I'm guessing your program will be in New York, as you say it's the hardest hit area in the US right now. But once things begin to subside in NY, the virus will still be spreading in various other cities at different rates, and perhaps a different city will become the new hotspot in the summer or fall. Since things are so unpredictable, it's possible that even if you decided to attend the other program instead, by the time fall comes around then that area might actually be worse off.
A PhD is long - at least 5 or 6 years. I think it's the most wise to pick the program you would be happiest at and feel is the best fit for you, because the bulk of your time in the program will be spent after things return to normal. Hopefully there will be a vaccine within a year or so that will allow things to slowly return to normal, but in the meantime, I think there's a strong possibility that schools across the US could remain closed regardless of where is worst hit at the time.
(btw, if you feel that you want to postpone starting a program all together for personal reasons, maybe you can look into deferring for a term or a year?)